Trump’s plan to deport millions of illegal aliens starting with the estimated 400,000 criminal aliens is about to detonate shock waves throughout the nation.

But the 58% of Americans who support deportation believe it is necessary to maintain the integrity of U.S. elections, to redirect taxpayer dollars to services citizens rightfully deserve, and to safeguard the nation from potential terrorists.

The steadfast belief of many Republicans is that President Joe Biden, with the support of the Democratic party, purposely threw open the southern border to permit 20 million illegal immigrants to enter the country to subvert election registration rolls and turn the U.S. into a one-party nation.

A cost/benefit analysis by Washington think tanks, both on the right and the left, shows that hosting illegal migrants costs taxpayers a staggering $75 billion to $150 billion a year in welfare programs. Moreover, as many as 60% of illegals are working off the books, which means that they aren’t paying taxes.

Even if the American Immigration Council’s argument is accurate that it will cost $88 billion to deport just 1 million migrants a year, these numbers prove that even in the short run, it is more sensible and viable for the U.S. budget and economy to remove illegal migrants.

These figures don’t even reflect “the tens of billions of dollars spent by the Biden-Harris administration over the past four years through the departments of Health and Human Services, Homeland Security and Justice to nongovernmental organizations to facilitate the mass migration to the United States,” notes Lora Ries, director of the Border Security and Immigration Center at The Heritage Foundation.

“Cutting off those billions and carrying out the deportations will yield a considerable savings compared to the cost,” Ries says. “Using tax dollars to provide benefits for American citizens and getting back to a sane, manageable immigration policy will benefit all Americans.”

On top of these hard numbers has been an incredible “loss of life of American citizens through fentanyl poisonings and overdosing” from drugs illegally brought over the border by smugglers, Ries continues, “including the loss of migrant life and sex trafficking. Those costs are incalculable.”

“Illegal immigration causes an enormous drain on public funds,” concurs Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo. “Accommodating the needs of endless numbers of poor, unskilled illegal entrants undermines the quality of education, healthcare, already limited affordable housing, and other services for Americans. Illegal immigration compromises our nation's security, allowing potential terrorists to hide in the shadows.”

Michael Busler, a public policy analyst and a professor of finance at Stockton University in Galloway, New Jersey, says the true annual cost of hosting illegal aliens is at least $150 billion a year and is a net negative for the U.S. budget even if the estimates that aliens contribute $96.7 billion a year in taxes are true.

The government is obligated to pay for aliens’ medical care, housing and welfare programs, including food and education through college, Busler notes. Some states even permit illegal aliens to sign up for Medicaid, he says, pointing out that American taxpayers, of course, are paying for all of these services.

Already, some economists are pushing back against Trump’s deportation plan by arguing that it would face legal challenges and be a drain on the economy since the U.S. labor force would be reduced, and that it would stoke inflation.

The Peterson Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, for example, estimates that deporting the 8.3 million immigrants illegally working in the U.S. would reduce U.S. gross domestic product by $5.1 trillion and raise inflation by 9.1 percentage points by 2028. With U.S. GDP reaching $27.4 trillion in the third quarter of 2024, that would mean slashing GDP by 18.6% and raising current inflation of 2.6% as measured by the consumer price index in November, to 11.7%.

Busler says that given the outsized expense of taking care of illegals, he “doesn’t know if these are very sound arguments.”

Fighting the Fight

Headlines and media coverage will condemn Trump for reversing Biden’s reckless, anti-American actions, of course, Ries says. The media will try to stoke backlash, she says, and “continue to lie about this,” she says. “We saw this during Trump’s first administration, where they tried to hijack Americans’ compassions by showing pictures of aliens in processing centers, trying to portray them as internment camps.”

The difference now is that Trump’s decisive win in the 2024 election indicates “Americans voted for immigration enforcement,” Ries continues. “We cannot sustain this volume of people, as shown by the crises in Springfield, Ohio, Aurora, Colorado, and so many other communities.”

The Heritage Foundation hopes that the new Department of Government Efficiency under the leadership of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will expose how much the Biden administration spent to bring the 11 million to 17 million illegals into the U.S. — and their underhanded reasons for doing so, Ries says.

The conservative think tank believes the “purpose of illegal immigration is, in a word, power,” Ries says. Democrats proved their true motives to open the border floodgates by voting against the SAVE (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility) Act that would have explicitly required American citizen identification to vote in federal elections, Reis says.

“Democrats have been clear that they want noncitizens, temporary Visa holders, and green card holders to vote and be counted in the census for Congressional district appointment, which impacts the numbers of electoral votes for each state,” Reis says.

Trump is known for hyperbole, of course, which leads observers to believe he may tamp down his deportation plans. Busler believes Trump’s new border czar Tom Holman will do a good job of removing criminal aliens from the country, but he also points out that there are many illegal immigrants who entered the country before the Biden administration and have become productive members of society with families.

“They are established in their communities,” Busler says. “We don’t want to reward someone who broke the law, but we need to have compassion for someone who has been here for years. We are a nation of immigrants — they make up 14% of the U.S. population.”

Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, estimates that 75% of illegal aliens pay taxes amounting to nearly $100 billion a year in federal, state and local taxes, primarily through the use of Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers rather than Social Security Numbers.

Pathway

“This is why the USHBC supports a guest worker program and pathway to citizenship that would help facilitate tax payments from individuals who are already here and working,” Palomarez says.

“It’s critical to understand the paradox that is illegal immigrant labor,” he says. “While it’s lawfully prohibited, its critical role in our economy is obvious. Getting rid of illegal immigrant workers would bring our food supply, construction capabilities, manufacturing output, and supply chains to a standstill.”

Holman already is vowing to take a tough stance on illegal immigration, sending a stern message to Democratic mayors and governors who want to stand in his way.

“Game on,” Holman told Newsmax. “We've explained, the president, myself, Steve Miller, we've all explained that public safety threats should be the priority, right out of the gate.”

One thing all Americans can agree on: Illegal immigration is a tinderbox that, once Trump takes office on January 20, is about to be set off.