With the 2024 election in full swing, the race remains extremely close, and Donald Trump has gained momentum. Honestly, when you have a good friend who was murdered by an undocumented immigrant, a buddy who lost their job in this economy, an acquaintance who has become bankrupt, or a family member who was killed by poison drugs coming over the border, you may see eye to eye with me on why Trump could potentially win big.

Many people see the Trump years as the Golden Age with great potential, but the last few years has been devastating for the middle class and minorities in this country. With so many people in fear of the rampant crime, potential World War II, and the worst economy in 50 years, voters are just now waking up to the extreme pain of poor leadership.

Here’s a breakdown of some key elements that could work in his favor as Trump seeks reelection as President of the United States again.

1. Inflation and Economic Concerns: Inflation peaked in 2022, and though it has decreased, prices remain significantly higher than when Biden took office. Many voters feel this impact and may hold Democrats responsible for economic management.
2. Economic Perception Lag: Public sentiment about the economy lags behind official data as people are just now getting broke with the credit cards run up higher than ever. While some indicators have improved, many working-class voters have experienced stagnant wages, worsening their outlook.
3. Incumbent Parties Struggling: Across the world, incumbent parties are performing poorly. This global trend, combined with negative public perception of the current administration, may hinder Harris’s chances.
4. Populism’s Appeal: Trump’s populist and libertarian message continues to resonate with a substantial portion of the electorate, which feels disconnected from mainstream political solutions.
5. Immigration Crisis: Illegal immigration and crime and costs related to it are a big problem for the Biden administration, creating backlash and giving Trump a key issue to campaign on. The government reports have said that immigration has stolen cash and benefits from minority citizens leaving them fighting for food and housing.
6. Shifts in Political Positions: Democrat’s shift to more liberal and unstructured stances has left them open to criticism, and they have struggled to reconcile these positions with the current platform.
7. Cultural Shift to the Right: The cultural landscape is shifting, and many voters are moving rapidly to “law and order” “right of center” positions on issues like rape, murder, child molesters, and crime, "wokeness," and COVID-19 policies.
8. Nostalgia for Trump’s First Term: Many voters remember the economic growth during Trump’s first three years and associate the turmoil of 2020 with Democrats, even though they weren’t in power then.
9. Trump Winning Majority of Latino Hispanic Votes in Polls and winning with Minorities: With Trump winning Latino voters by 11% in recent polls, many now believe that voters have now discovered who the real elitist-racists are. Democrats support from Blacks and Hispanics is rapidly slipping.
10. Disillusioned Young Men: Declining college enrollment and reduced economic opportunities for young men are contributing to a rightward shift, further expanding the gender gap in voting.
11. Biden and Kamala’s Speaking Problems: Biden’s advanced age and Kamala’s interview skills has been a point of concern, and it undermines Harris Campaigns’ ability to make gains.
12. Appearance of the Democrats Stealing the Nomination by installing the Harris Campaign: Harris took over much of Biden’s campaign infrastructure without receiving any votes but has faced difficulties stepping out of his shadow and creating a unique platform. Many Americans see Harris as a person who stole the nomination from the people.
13. Electoral College Advantage: Trump has more paths to victory in 2024 as Ohio and Florida are strong states for Trump already and Trump can focus on: PA, WI, MI, MN, AZ, NV and even Maine.
14. Gender Dynamics: Running as the first female presidential candidate comes with challenges. In 2016, undecided voters broke against Hillary Clinton because she had been in power for decades with no relevant achievements to brag about, and Harris faces similar headwinds.
15. Media Distrust: Trust in media is at historic lows, making it difficult for critiques of Trump to resonate with voters. Further, the government attacks on Trump and the opposition appears to be political attacks using concocted prosecutions.
16. Trump’s Persuasive Appeal: With his decades of success notoriety and overcoming obstacles, Trump has a unique ability to connect with voters and convince them he represents their interests.
17. Democratic Messaging Issues: The Democratic consultant class has struggled to connect with the working families and mass public, while Trump has effectively courted more marginal voting groups.
18. Democracy Narrative Isn’t Landing: While Democrats focus on the baseless threat Trump poses to democracy, many voters don’t feel this is a pressing concern, especially since Trump has proven himself as a battle tested leader and democrats have been exposed as frauds with fake evidence such as the Russian Dossier.
19. Foreign Policy Problems and WWIII: Under Biden, global instability has increased, from the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East to deteriorating U.S.-China relations, making foreign policy a horribly weak point for the current administration with wars in Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and many other regions which affect oil and food prices.
20. Divisions Over Israel-Hamas Conflict: The ongoing conflict has split the Democratic base, while Republicans have remained more united, providing an advantage for Trump.
21. Third-Party Candidates: Since Kennedy and Gabbard were Democrat Presidential candidates who have now endorsed, Trump, this is first time in history that anyone has 2 crossover leaders endorse them. More left-leaning third-party candidates could siphon votes from Harris, weakening her chances in key swing states.
22. Elon Musk’s Influence: Musk’s vocal support for Trump and the rightward shift of Twitter/X have provided Trump with a powerful cultural and financial ally, which has boosted his campaign.
23. Sympathy After Assassination Attempts: Trump survived two assassination attempts, which increased his favorability ratings and generated public sympathy while Trump’s friend Majority Leader Steve Scalise also survived critical bullet wounds from a leftist extremist and survived.
24. Clearer Messaging: Trump has a consistent and clear message that resonates with his base, while Harris has struggled to articulate a compelling vision for the country.
25. Deteriorating Trust in Institutions: A general decline in trust in institutions, including the government and media, may favor Trump, whose campaign often positions itself as anti-establishment.
26. The Economic Narrative: The economic story Trump tells resonates with many Americans who feel left behind, particularly as the economy remains a key issue for voters.
27. Cultural Backlash: A significant segment of voters feels alienated by progressive social policies, contributing to a cultural backlash that Trump has tapped into effectively.
28. Voter Enthusiasm Gap: Trump’s base remains highly energized, while Democratic enthusiasm may be dampened by internal divisions and disillusionment with the current administration.
29. Rising Corporate Profits vs. Wage Stagnation: As corporate profits rise while wages stagnate, working-class voters feel increasingly disillusioned with the status quo and are more likely to turn to Trump.
30. Inflation Fatigue: Though inflation has cooled, prices are still high, and many voters are feeling the squeeze, a key factor working against the Democrats.
31. Persistent Economic Discontent: Many voters continue to feel pessimistic about the economy, even as official data suggests improvement. This disconnect favors an outsider candidate like Trump.
32. Failed Policy on Crime: Crime rates and perceptions of public safety remain major concerns for voters, and Trump’s tough-on-crime rhetoric has appeal.
33. Rightward Shift Among Youth: A portion of younger voters, especially men, has shifted rightward, contributing to Trump’s support.
34. Failed Promises on Healthcare: Many voters feel that the healthcare system has totally failed under the current administration, providing another opening for Trump.
35. Lack of Progress on Immigration Reform: The Biden administration’s struggles with immigration issues have left some voters disillusioned, bolstering Trump’s tough stance.
36. Job Market Frustrations: Despite low unemployment numbers, many workers feel stuck in low-wage jobs, contributing to frustration with the current administration.
37. Perception of Weak Leadership: Voters who perceive Harris as a weak leader may lean toward Trump, who presents himself as decisive and strong.
38. Political Fatigue: Many voters are tired of the political gridlock in Washington and may see Trump as an outsider who can shake things up.
39. Education Polarization: The growing divide between college-educated and non-college-educated voters has created a new electoral dynamic that may favor Trump.
40. Gender Identity Issues: As debates over gender identity and related topics intensify, Trump’s opposition to progressive stances on these issues resonates with some voters.
41. Appeal to Working-Class Whites: Trump’s appeal to working-class white voters remains strong, particularly in key battleground states.
42. Perception of Democratic Elitism: Trump’s campaign against “elites” continues to resonate with voters who feel left out of the political process.
43. Biden’s Approval Ratings: Biden’s approval ratings have remained low throughout much of his presidency, creating headwinds for Harris.
44. Gun Rights: Trump’s strong stance on gun rights appeals to a significant portion of the electorate, particularly in rural areas.
45. Evangelical and Jewish Support: Trump’s support among evangelical Christians remains high, providing a reliable voter base. The Jewish population is frightened at this time by Democrat policies, and Trump may pick up another 1 million votes due to the insensitivity of the Democrat elite and policymakers.
46. Trump’s Media Savvy: Trump’s ability to dominate media cycles works to his advantage, keeping him in the spotlight and controlling the narrative.
47. Harris’s Changing Policy Stances: Voters may see Harris’s shifts on key issues as a lack of consistency, which could hurt her credibility.
48. Biden’s Foreign Policy Decisions: Decisions like the withdrawal from Afghanistan have hurt Biden’s approval ratings, and Harris has been unable to distance herself from these failures because she has been in power and had a seat at the table for the last 4 years.
49. Voter Fatigue with COVID Policies: Many voters are frustrated with ongoing COVID-related policies and restrictions, providing another issue for Trump to capitalize on.
50. General Discontent: Overall discontent with the direction of the country could lead to a protest vote against the current administration, benefitting Trump.

In the end, Trump will probably win this election due to the facts that people have had enough pain. The relentless rise in inflation, soaring food prices, burdensome city taxes, overpriced gas, and a slew of new fees on everything from rent to phone bills, garbage collection, and cable TV is pushing people to their tipping point.

Videos of hardworking women on YouTube and TikTok breaking down in tears because they can’t afford rent and they are hungry for food are resonating deeply with teachers, union workers, and the entire middle class. These stories are hitting home emotionally, creating a growing sense of frustration and a desire for change with innovation. Many voters may decide that it’s time to stand up against failed leadership and a system that seems increasingly out of touch with their daily struggles.

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Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® is the first in the USA to rank as a Top 50 Influencer & Thought Leader in: Management, PM, HR, FinTech, Wealth Management, and B2B according to Onalytica.com and Thinkers360.com. George Mentz JD MBA CILS is a CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ®, global speaker - educator, tax-economist, international lawyer and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a EU accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under standards of the: US Dept of Education, ACBSP, ISO 21001, ISO 991, ISO 29993, QAHE, ECLBS, and ISO 29990 standards. Mentz is also an award-winning author and award winning graduate law professor of wealth management of one of the top 30 ranked law schools in the USA.
 

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