Gold is on fire. On March 14th, gold broke through the critical $3,000 barrier, setting a new record at $3,003 per ounce. That’s a 14% surge year-to-date, following a massive 29% gain in 2024. Analysts are scrambling to adjust their forecasts. Most didn’t expect gold to hit $2,500 this soon, let alone $3,000.¹

So, the big question: How high can gold go?

Why Gold Is Exploding

John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, summed it up as:

“Gold hitting $3,000 is a significant milestone and reinforces the asset’s safe haven role in times of uncertainty. From $1,000 during the financial crisis to $2,000 amid the pandemic, gold has proven to perform well in risk-off environments.”²

And there is no shortage of risk in today's environment.

Gold’s rise is being fueled by a perfect storm of economic and geopolitical pressures:

- Trade Wars and Tariffs: President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies are injecting fresh uncertainty into global markets. Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU have triggered retaliatory measures, fueling demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

- Central Bank Buying: Central banks are loading up on gold at record levels. Goldman Sachs reports banks are now buying 50 tons of gold per month—up from 41 tons—driving prices higher.

- Geopolitical Factors—De-dollarization, sanctions, and inflation concerns are driving this increase. Reade said. “As global fragmentation continues, central bank buying will remain a strong pillar of demand.”³

- Recession Fears: JP Morgan, Polymarket, and Moody's Analytics all significantly raised the chance of a recession this year. Investors are piling into gold as a hedge against market instability and economic weakness.

- Inflation Concerns: With inflation already running hot, rising inflation expectations are adding to the pressure. Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against the declining value of paper currency.

$3,500 Gold by Q3?

Macquarie Group has raised its gold forecast to $3,500 by the third quarter, with an average price of $3,150 for 2025. Macquarie’s head of commodities pointed to Trump’s tariff strategy:

“President Trump's rapid move to announce, if not always to enact, import tariffs has contributed to geopolitical uncertainty and boosted inflation expectations, helping push down front-end real rates and supporting gold.”⁴

BNP Paribas now sees gold hitting $3,100 in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs boosted its year-end target from $2,890 to $3,100, citing "structurally higher central bank demand" as a key driver. Goldman repeated their call for clients to "go for gold."⁵

Could Gold Hit $10,000?

Some analysts think gold’s rally is just getting started.

Peter Schiff, a longtime gold advocate, predicts gold could hit $5,000 to $10,000 an ounce within the next 5 to 10 years.

InvestingHaven outlined an “exceptional case” scenario where extreme inflation and global instability push gold to $10,000 by 2030.

Jeff Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, sees gold reaching $4,000 “if not this year, then soon.” Gundlach pointed to financial instability and rising central bank holdings as key drivers.

Is There a Ceiling for Gold?

Technically, no. Gold isn’t tied to earnings or production costs like stocks—it’s driven by market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. But there are some potential limits:

Profit-Taking: If gold rises too quickly, investors could cash out, triggering a pullback.

Interest Rates: Higher rates make interest-bearing assets more attractive, which could soften gold demand.

Alternative Safe Havens: If inflation hedges improve or geopolitical risks fade, gold demand could cool.

Government Intervention: If gold surges to extreme levels, central banks could step in through gold sales or policy adjustments to stabilize markets.

What Happens Next

Goldman Sachs believes gold could shoot past their own forecast if trade and policy uncertainty spikes. BNP Paribas and UBS agree that gold’s bull run is far from over. As UBS put it:

“It does not make sense to call for the end of gold’s bull run simply because it has reached yet another record.”⁶

Jeff Gundlach hinted that stock market turmoil could be the next big driver: “The momentum stocks – in particular the Mag 7 – were viewed to be invulnerable and immortal in terms of nonstop outperformance. But it never works that way … Every sector is always vulnerable.” If stocks falter, gold could surge even higher as investors seek a safe harbor.⁷

Conclusion

Gold’s rally past $3,000 isn’t just a milestone—it’s a warning. Trade wars, inflation, central bank buying, and recession fears are driving gold higher. While profit-taking and higher interest rates could create short-term headwinds, the bigger picture remains clear: Uncertainty is fueling gold’s rise—and that’s not changing anytime soon.

Could gold hit $10,000? In a world of runaway debt, inflation, and political instability, it’s not out of the question. The smart money is already moving. Are you? Learn how a Gold IRA can protect, or possibly increase, the value of your funds by calling American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071.

_______________
Max Baecker is the President of American Hartford Gold (AHG), the nation’s largest retailer of precious metals. He leads American Hartford Gold’s mission to help clients achieve long-term financial security with physical gold and silver.

Under his guidance, American Hartford Gold has delivered billions of dollars’ worth of precious metals to thousands of satisfied clients.

Max's dedication to upholding American Hartford Gold's industry-leading standards is reflected in its accolades. American Hartford Gold has made numerous high-ranking appearances on the prestigious Inc. 5000 List of America’s Fastest-Growing Private Companies. AHG holds an A+ Rating from the BBB and a 5-Star Rating on Trustpilot from thousands of American Hartford Gold reviews. American Hartford Gold is the only precious metals company trusted and recommended by Bill O’Reilly.

AHG offers investment-grade gold and silver coins and bars at competitive prices. Clients also benefit from its buy-back commitment with no back-end fees. To learn more, visit American Hartford Gold.

Notes:

1. https://delano.lu/article/gold-breaches-3-000-mark-as-us-eu-trade-tensions-rise

2. https://delano.lu/article/gold-breaches-3-000-mark-as-us-eu-trade-tensions-rise

3. https://delano.lu/article/gold-breaches-3-000-mark-as-us-eu-trade-tensions-rise

4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-touches-new-record-as-latest-wall-street-prediction-sees-prices-reaching-3500-170903882.html

5. https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2025/02/18/as-gold-nears-3000-wall-street-predicts-it-may-head-higher-still/

6. https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2025/02/18/as-gold-nears-3000-wall-street-predicts-it-may-head-higher-still/

7. https://www.tradingview.com/news/forexlive:15c1ba44f094b:0-jeff-gundlach-sees-a-60-chance-of-a-us-recession-this-year-sees-gold-hitting-4000/