2024 was a great year for gold — and 2025 promises to be even better. As the new year rings in with growing uncertainty, the case for owning gold has never been more compelling. Central banks, hedge funds, billionaires, and individual investors alike are turning to gold to protect against economic challenges. Here’s why gold continues to solidify its position as the ultimate safe-haven investment.

Gold's Steady Rise

Gold prices have experienced a meteoric rise, surging over 70% since 2020. In 2024 alone, gold climbed 29%, hitting a record high of $2,800 in October. A single 400-ounce gold bar even surpassed a valuation of $1 million. Outpacing the S&P 500, gold's stellar performance has reaffirmed its appeal, with JP Morgan declaring it the best commodity to buy.¹

“Gold still looks well-situated to hedge the elevated levels of uncertainty around the macro landscape heading into the initial stages of the Trump administration in 2025,” wrote JP Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy.²

JP Morgan and Bank of America both see gold going to $3,000 in 2025. And the London Bullion Market Association, known as the voice of the global precious metals market, foresees gold climbing even higher—potentially reaching $7,000 by 2030.³

Key Drivers of Gold's Ascent

Inflation Resurgence

After a brief reprieve, inflation is ticking upward. Cumulative inflation since 2020 has reached 22%, with transportation costs spiking over 34%. Gold, a traditional hedge against inflation, is renowned for preserving purchasing power. With its price continuing to rise as the dollar loses value.⁴

National Debt Crisis

With the U.S. national debt exceeding $36 trillion, concerns about economic instability are escalating. JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called the astronomical debt “the most predictable crisis” for America. The creditworthiness of the U.S., a pillar of the global economy, is being questioned by foreign investors.  Left unchecked, runaway debt could lead a 'doom spiral' that ends in hyperinflation and severe economic downturns. Gold provides a hedge against these risks, preserving wealth amid financial uncertainty.

Geopolitical Turmoil

From Russia’s nuclear saber rattling to the ongoing conflict in Syria, geopolitical tensions are driving a ‘flight to safety’ toward gold. Volatile markets and vulnerable supply lines are threatening to disrupt an already fragile global economy. As chaos disrupts the global order, gold stands as historically stable asset.

Central Bank Buying, Especially China

Gold purchases by central banks are hitting near-record levels as global powers diversify away from the U.S. dollar. In the first half of 2024, central banks bought a staggering 483 tons of gold—5% higher than the previous record set in H1 2023. The most significant surge came in Q1, where 290 tons were added, marking the largest first-quarter increase in over two decades.⁵

Leading the charge is the People’s Bank of China, which resumed a multi-year gold buying spree after a brief pause. This move is part of China’s broader strategy to shield itself from a weaponized U.S. dollar and reinforce its economic stability. It’s clear that gold is playing a central role in China’s drive for de-dollarization and the overthrow of U.S. economic supremacy.

And it’s not just China. According to the World Gold Council, over 80% of reserve managers expect central bank gold buying to keep up over the next year, continuing the trend seen over the past two years. This optimism around gold is unwavering, even with gold prices hitting new all-time highs in 2024. Central banks are betting big on gold, and the trend shows no sign of slowing down.⁵

Why Gold in 2025?

Gold’s success in 2024 is setting the stage for an even brighter 2025. Here’s what’s fueling the outlook:

Economic Transformation in the U.S.

Trump's plan to steer the economy toward long-term stability could bring short-term "economic pain." Policies like higher tariffs and tax cuts risk fueling inflation and widening the deficit. While the new administration bets on growth from deregulation and cuts to outpace the deficit, the debt load keeps rising. These shifting dynamics only enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge against the uncertainty ahead.

Federal Reserve Policy

The Fed faces a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and stimulating growth. Whether rates rise or fall, gold stands to benefit, as it thrives in both inflationary and recessionary environments.

Geopolitical Escalations

Continuing conflicts and heightening uncertainty, with no resolutions in sight, will likely sustain gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overvalued Stock Market

Analysts say stocks are in an overinflated bubble, with a major market correction potentially on the horizon. The CAPE Ratio and Buffett Indicator both signal a dangerously overvalued market. What's worse, much of the value is concentrated in just a few stocks.

But even beyond a correction, top investment banks like JPMorgan, GMO, Apollo Global Management, and Goldman Sachs are predicting a "lost decade" for stock returns—expecting nominal returns of only 3% per year, with real inflation-adjusted gains at a mere 1%.⁶

In contrast, gold, which tends to move in the opposite direction of equities, stands out as a defensive asset. With signs pointing to an impending market downturn, gold is a strategic diversifier that mitigates risk.

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs is telling clients: "Go for gold." ⁷ And it’s hard to argue with that. Gold is proving itself as a defensive strategy to protect your portfolio’s value—and the fact that it’s on a steady upward trajectory? That’s just a bonus. Especially if you're holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA.

Gold's outlook for 2025 is exceptionally strong, with analysts predicting prices could break $3,000—and potentially hit $7,000 within the next decade. For those looking to safeguard and grow their wealth, gold offers a solid, long-term security strategy. You can learn more about protecting your portfolio with a Gold IRA by contacting American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071.

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Max Baecker is the President of American Hartford Gold (AHG), the nation’s largest retailer of precious metals. He leads American Hartford Gold’s mission to help clients achieve long-term financial security with physical gold and silver.

Under his guidance, American Hartford Gold has delivered billions of dollars’ worth of precious metals to thousands of satisfied clients.

Max's dedication to upholding American Hartford Gold's industry-leading standards is reflected in its accolades. American Hartford Gold has made numerous high-ranking appearances on the prestigious Inc. 5000 List of America’s Fastest-Growing Private Companies. AHG holds an A+ Rating from the BBB and a 5-Star Rating on Trustpilot from thousands of American Hartford Gold reviews. American Hartford Gold is the only precious metals company trusted and recommended by Bill O’Reilly.

AHG offers investment-grade gold and silver coins and bars at competitive prices. Clients also benefit from its buy-back commitment with no back-end fees. To learn more, visit American Hartford Gold.

Notes:

1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-19/go-gold-says-goldman-sachs-prices-still-track-hit-3000-year-end-2025

2. https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2024-12-09/gold-swot-jp-morgan-says-gold-top-commodity-buy-2025

3. https://www.lbma.org.uk/alchemist/issue-97/the-rational-case-for-7-000-gold-by-2030

4. https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2020?amount=52000

5. https://gjepc.org/news_detail.php?news=central-bank-gold-demand-expected-to-rise-in-2025-survey

6. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/is-there-a-lost-decade-ahead-for-stocks-3683339

7. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-says-gold-central-banks-023249823.html