This year, the United States crossed a financial line most of us hoped it would never reach. The national debt surged past $38 trillion faster than any trillion-dollar jump outside the pandemic. According to Treasury data, it’s climbing at over $66,000 every single second in 2025. Far from normal, America’s balance sheet is deteriorating at an alarming speed.¹

Large, built-in programs like Social Security and Medicare are driving most of this surge. Meanwhile, interest payments alone now total about one trillion dollars a year. For the first time in modern history, the U.S. is spending more on interest than national defense. Economist Heather Long called the 2020s a decade of “big permanent deficits,” with budget gaps expected even when unemployment is low. Chronic overspending is now baked into the system.²

Point of No Return

Some experts warn we may be heading toward a point where traditional policy tools simply won’t work. Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that by the mid-2040s, interest payments could consume most of the federal budget. At that point, even sweeping tax hikes won’t fix the problem. Smetters warns the U.S. could face either an outright default, literally failing to pay its bills, or a stealthy one, where inflation and deep cuts to Social Security and Medicare quietly erode obligations. History shows nearly every major empire eventually crumbled under such crushing debt.³

National Security at Risk

Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations warns that America’s debt is really a national security issue. Big chunks of the budget that used to fund defense, infrastructure, cybersecurity, and public health are now eaten up by interest payments. Haass and NYU’s Carolyn Kissane note we’ve already burned through our “rainy day fund” during calm times, leaving little room to respond when real crises hit. ⁴

The path ahead is stark. America’s fall from global leadership could be sudden, like plunging off a cliff, sparked by a failed Treasury auction or a geopolitical crisis. Or it could be slow and relentless. A quiet erosion of strength that forces tough tradeoffs in defense and strategy, leaving the nation weaker at home and powerless abroad. Either way, our ballooning debt is stripping away the flexibility America needs to compete, protect, and lead.

Crossing the Fiscal Rubicon

Economist James Thorne says we’ve already crossed a fiscal Rubicon. Thorne predicts a monetary reset similar to Bretton Woods, where gold is officially written onto government balance sheets to manage sovereign debt. In that scenario, gold could hit $5,000 in the near term and approach $8,000 by decade’s end. He also warns that the current stock supercycle will likely end in a crash, followed by a “lost decade” for investors.⁵

Bond Vigilantes at the Gate

With neither political party tackling the debt, out-of-control government spending is giving rise to “bond vigilantes”. These bond traders push back when they lose confidence in government debt. To protect their portfolios, they demand higher yields, which in turn drives up interest rates on mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing. The impact hits households immediately, turning government debt mismanagement into a very personal problem.

The Clock Is Ticking

Most projections suggest the U.S. won’t default in the next decade. But the risk rises steadily as debt servicing costs grow and political standoffs over the debt ceiling continue. The Congressional Budget Office estimates debt could hit 118% of GDP by 2035. Without major reforms, this trajectory becomes unsustainable. Analysts are focused on the mid-2040s to 2050, when interest payments could overwhelm revenues and push the country into a fiscal crisis.⁶

What a Default Would Mean for Americans

A U.S. default would trigger chaos across the economy. Treasury markets could freeze, cutting off funds the government relies on to pay Social Security, pensions, and federal workers. Agencies like the Post Office and TSA might suspend operations, and states would lose critical federal support, straining budgets and public services.

The economic fallout would be severe. Analysts warn GDP could shrink 4–6%, with up to eight million jobs lost. Stock markets could tumble 45%, wiping out trillions in household wealth. Borrowing costs would spike. The dollar could weaken, driving up import prices and fueling inflation, and a credit crunch could make any possible recovery slow and painful.⁷

Why Gold Becomes Essential in a Debt Crisis

When debt spirals out of control and ravages the dollar, gold becomes the ultimate safe haven. It can’t be printed, carries no counterparty risk, and preserves value even as inflation soars and savings get crushed. A default would push investors from Treasury securities into hard assets, sending gold demand skyrocketing. Still, the U.S. debt is so massive that even gathering every ounce of gold on Earth wouldn’t cover the $38 trillion in liabilities; underscoring just how exposed the system is and why gold is essential to protect wealth.

Conclusion

The whole world is watching this slow-motion train wreck. Everyone talks about stopping it, everyone wants it to stop, but no one takes meaningful action. You don’t have to sit on the sidelines and watch your savings get destroyed in the crash. Physical gold offers a way to protect your wealth from the fallout of rising debt, inflation, and a weakening dollar. To learn how a Gold IRA or physical gold can safeguard your financial future, call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071.

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Max Baecker is the President of American Hartford Gold (AHG), the nation’s largest retailer of precious metals. He leads American Hartford Gold’s mission to help clients achieve long-term financial security with physical gold and silver.

Under his guidance, American Hartford Gold has delivered billions of dollars’ worth of precious metals to thousands of satisfied clients.

Max's dedication to upholding American Hartford Gold's industry-leading standards is reflected in its accolades. American Hartford Gold has made numerous high-ranking appearances on the prestigious Inc. 5000 List of America’s Fastest-Growing Private Companies. AHG holds an A+ Rating from the BBB and a 5-Star Rating on Trustpilot from thousands of American Hartford Gold reviews. American Hartford Gold is the only precious metals company trusted and recommended by Bill O’Reilly.

AHG offers investment-grade gold and silver coins and bars at competitive prices. Clients also benefit from its buy-back commitment with no back-end fees. To learn more, visit American Hartford Gold.

Notes:

1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-hits-historic-38-trillion-milestone-first-time

2. https://fortune.com/2025/11/13/top-economists-urge-action-38-trillion-national-debt/

3. https://new.concordcoalition.org/the-penn-wharton-federal-budget-model-predicts-higher-debt-and-interest/

4. https://pgpf.org/news/experts-identify-lessons-from-history-for-america-today

5. https://advisor.wellington-altus.ca/market-insights-james-thorne/

6. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59007

7. https://pgpf.org/news/debt-ceiling-update-whats-at-stake