Global stocks, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies are poised for a powerful rally if real progress emerges from President Trump’s diplomatic drive to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

As the president prepares to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington before heading to Budapest for talks with Vladimir Putin, investors are beginning to position for the possibility that one of the world’s longest and most destabilizing conflicts could finally be moving toward negotiation. European markets opened higher, US futures gained, and oil eased to around $82 a barrel as traders trimmed geopolitical risk premiums.

These are early signs of what could become a much broader re-rating if diplomacy takes hold.

For nearly three years, global markets have labored under the weight of uncertainty created by this war. Every extension of the conflict has amplified volatility, redirected capital into havens, and distorted energy and commodity flows. A credible move toward peace would change that almost immediately.

If progress is made, cyclical sectors are likely to lead the rebound. Industrials, materials, energy, and financials all stand to benefit as visibility improves and deferred investment projects resume.

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The reconstruction of Ukrainian infrastructure would generate significant demand for construction equipment, steel, copper, and transport logistics. Banks and insurers, long burdened by elevated risk premiums, would see valuation uplift as cross-border financing reopens.

The spillover across asset classes could be dramatic. Oil may stabilize lower, helping margins and cooling inflation. Gold, which has served as a barometer of fear, could soften as defensive flows unwind. That capital would then rotate toward equities, corporate bonds, and emerging-market assets. Currencies tied to global trade—such as the euro, the Korean won, and the Mexican peso—could strengthen as supply-chain reliability returns.

Technology and clean-energy names would also gain. When political risk subsides, long-duration growth sectors tend to re-rate first. AI, semiconductor manufacturing, and renewable-power development would benefit from both renewed confidence and lower funding costs.

Green infrastructure projects, delayed or downsized in wartime, would move forward again under more predictable conditions.

Markets do not need a signed peace agreement to respond. They react the moment the probability of progress rises. Symbolic gestures, such as agreement on humanitarian corridors, ceasefire monitoring, or economic cooperation frameworks, would be enough to ignite a relief rally.

Momentum feeds on direction, and even incremental advances between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv would create that sense of direction.

The White House has signaled a strategy that blends pressure with diplomacy, hinting that long-range Tomahawk missiles could be supplied to Ukraine if Russia resists compromise. This dual posture gives the United States leverage while preserving a credible pathway to negotiation. For markets, that balance of assertiveness and engagement is critical; it implies intent, not improvisation.

If the Budapest meeting produces even the outline of a roadmap, liquidity now parked in money-market funds and short-dated bonds will move fast.

Risk assets could rally sharply into year-end. Equity funds that have been sitting on record cash levels would rotate into cyclical and value plays. Credit spreads in emerging economies would narrow as global investors re-embrace yield.

The timing amplifies the potential. Inflation is easing, earnings are holding, and central banks appear comfortable maintaining accommodative policy.

Remove the geopolitical drag, and the final quarter of 2025 could deliver one of the strongest periods for returns in recent years.

Setbacks are possible. Talks could stall, rhetoric could harden, or battlefield realities could interrupt momentum.

In that scenario, haven flows would return briefly to gold and sovereign bonds. Yet even with temporary reversals, the market would retain its bias toward optimism because diplomacy has finally re-entered the equation.

A breakthrough would be more than a geopolitical achievement; it would be an economic catalyst. Peace progress would lift productivity expectations, revive trade finance, stabilize energy prices, and restore confidence to corporate investment plans. It would also give monetary authorities more space to focus on growth rather than crisis containment.

Markets move when fear fades, and they move fast. If President Trump’s initiative succeeds in drawing Russia and Ukraine closer to a ceasefire, it will reset global risk appetite and drive capital back into productive motion.

The combination of diplomacy, economic reopening, and investor momentum could define not just the remainder of this year but the direction of markets well into 2026.

After years of disruption, the possibility of peace is no longer theoretical—it is a market event waiting to be priced.

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London-born Nigel Green is founder and CEO of deVere Group. Following in his father’s footsteps, he entered the financial services industry as a young adult. After working in the sector for 15 years in London, he subsequently spent several years operating within the international space, before launching deVere in 2002 with a single office in Hong Kong. Today, deVere is one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations, doing business in 100 countries and with more than $12bn under advisement. It specializes global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. In early 2017, it was announced that deVere would launch its own private bank. In addition, deVere also confirmed it has received its own investment banking license.