Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race in the crucial battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin with less than 40 days left before the presidential election, according to recent New York Times/Siena College polls.
The surveys, conducted just over a month before the election, show a narrowing race, with Harris' earlier lead eroded by Trump's persistent appeal on economic issues.
In Michigan, Harris holds 48 percent support among likely voters, while Trump has 47 percent, placing the candidates within the poll's margin of error.
Similarly, Harris leads by a narrow margin in Wisconsin, garnering 49 percent to Trump's 47 percent. Wisconsin has been a focus for both campaigns as the race tightens.
The findings mark a shift from early August when Harris had a more comfortable lead. The polling data suggests that Trump's strong standing on economic issues could influence voters as the economy remains a top concern. This development could be problematic for Harris, especially in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which are considered pivotal for a path to victory.
In a potential scenario, Harris' electoral chances could hinge on a single electoral vote from Nebraska's Second Congressional District, where she currently holds a nine-point lead. If Harris secures Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania while Trump wins the Sun Belt battlegrounds, the district's electoral vote could be decisive, bringing her to the 270 electoral votes required to win.
Wisconsin, a key battleground for Democrats, has been decided by less than a point in four of the last six elections, including 2020. Biden won Michigan by three-tenths of a point that year, following Trump's narrow 2016 victory there.
In terms of demographic support, the polls found that 80 percent of Black voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio plan to vote for Harris, compared to 13 percent for Trump. However, this level of support is slightly lower than the percentage of Black voters who supported Biden in 2020. This could signal challenges for Harris in mobilizing a crucial voting bloc.
Antonio Dawkins, a 40-year-old regional sales manager from Waukesha, Wisconsin, expressed frustration with the candidates. Dawkins, who identifies as Black, plans to vote but will leave the presidential line blank.
"She's kind of taking the car salesman pitch and trying to sell everybody that she's not Trump, and that's not enough," Dawkins said. "She says a lot of things that sound good with no details. So, I guess they call that — there's no meat and potatoes."
Respondents were selected from a diverse list of registered voters, with nearly 260,000 calls made to over 140,000 voters. The margin of error is about plus or minus 4 points per poll and 2.5 points for combined state results.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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