Just six in 10 Americans say they are confident that votes in the 2026 midterm elections will be counted accurately, a sharp drop from levels recorded after the 2024 presidential election, according to a research survey from the University of California, San Diego that also found broad expectations that federal immigration officers could be present at polling places come November.
The survey of 11,406 eligible U.S. voters was conducted Dec. 19, 2025, through Jan. 12, 2026, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 0.9 percentage points, according to the UC San Diego Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections report.
Overall confidence that votes will be counted accurately nationwide was 60%, with independents lowest at 57%, Democrats at 64%, and Republicans at 65%, the report said.
The report said confidence stood at 77% in the days immediately after the 2024 presidential election and has since fallen across partisan groups.
Republicans expressed particular distrust of voting by mail, with 50% saying they doubt that mailed ballots are counted accurately.
It also said that 51% of Republicans distrust that noncitizens will be prevented from casting ballots, and that Democrats were far less skeptical on that question.
Concerns about election administration extended beyond voting methods.
The poll said redistricting was a cross-party concern, with low trust that congressional district lines are drawn in a way that fairly reflects voters' preferences.
It reported that 27% of Democrats, 21% of independents, and 35% of Republicans said they have "some" or "a lot" of trust in how lines are drawn.
Looking ahead to November, 37% of respondents said they thought it was likely that federal immigration officers, such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, would be present at voting locations in their area; 46% of Hispanic and Black respondents said they worry about facing intimidation at the polls, compared with 10% of white respondents.
In Washington, those fears have collided with public debate over immigration enforcement tactics.
Todd Lyons, ICE acting director, told senators at a Feb. 12 Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing that there is no reason for ICE to deploy to polling places.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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