Statistics are always tricky: politicians engage in cherry-picking when supposedly hard facts are meant to support their own decisions. The distortion becomes particularly grotesque when green favorite projects, like the electrification of mobility, collide with reality.

The government pursues an ambitious goal: by 2030, 15 million fully electric vehicles (BEVs) should be cruising Germany’s roads. Yet car buyers are resisting: currently, only 1.8 million of the country’s 49.4 million vehicles are electric – meaning the target is already out of reach. Automobilwoche projects a baseline scenario of about 6.1 million BEVs by 2030, and in a pessimistic case only 4.7 million.

It is clear: political central planners are once again failing against reality – despite subsidies and tax incentives. The situation is worsened by the structural crisis in Germany’s auto industry, high energy costs, excessive regulation, and rising pressure from international competitors like China’s BYD or the U.S.’s Tesla.

Industry Under Pressure
It is obvious that even this subsidized segment of the green transformation contributes to the Green Deal’s failure for anyone examining current figures from the German auto industry. Month after month, German automakers report numbers, regardless of market or propulsion type, that document the sector’s dramatic decline. Since its best year in 2018, production has dropped by up to 20%.

This has direct effects on the labor market: in the past 12 months alone, roughly 51,500 jobs were lost. Overall, around 245,000 positions in the industry have been cut since 2019, with the automotive sector paying the heaviest price in the name of the green economic miracle.

Even the EV segment, supported with special depreciation rules and various initiatives to build charging infrastructure, points in the same downward direction.

A Cold Shower
In mid-July 2025, Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) reported euphorically a new record in EV registrations: 248,726 battery-powered cars were registered in the first half of the year – more than in the previous year (184,125) and even higher than in 2023 (220,244), the previous peak. The market share of new registrations rose to 17.7% (diesel: 15%), but still lagged behind gasoline (28.3%). At first glance, Germany seems to be experiencing an EV boom, a special upswing amid recession.

Yet the Central Association of the German Motor Trade (ZDK) warns: the reality in dealerships, where day-to-day business happens, is different. Private buyer demand fell by 9% year-on-year to 82,294 vehicles, while manufacturer and dealer registrations surged to 65,401, in some cases quadrupling.

Dealerships report stagnating commercial registrations, strained business conditions, and growing skepticism toward EVs. The supposed boom is an illusion.

ZDK President Thomas Peckruhn warned that the reported success in the EV segment is largely statistical fiction. The actual business situation of many dealerships and auto workshops is far more strained than official registration statistics suggest. Often, sales figures in the EV segment result from manufacturer or dealer self-registrations, fleet deals, or tactical measures – not genuine consumer demand, Peckruhn explained.

Success as a Statistical Construct
Peckruhn highlights the core problem: alleged EV registration successes are largely statistical constructs.

Self-registrations occur when manufacturers or dealers register vehicles themselves to later sell them as “young used cars” at a discount – appearing in statistics as real consumer demand. Fleet deals distort the picture similarly: large orders from corporations or government entities may create the impression of market growth but are often politically motivated or serve tax accounting purposes.

Peckruhn also points to tactical tricks by manufacturers: mass registrations at the end of quarters or fiscal years often help meet CO₂ targets, avoiding penalties while creating the illusion of a boom in the data.

EV Privileges
To boost the struggling segment, the state intervenes heavily. Particularly lucrative is the tax rule for company cars: EVs up to €100,000 list price are taxed at only 0.25% of the monetary benefit – a clear advantage, especially for pricier models.

Companies, self-employed individuals, and SMEs also benefit from generous depreciation rules, allowing up to 75% of the purchase cost to be claimed in the first year.

Additionally, EVs remain exempt from motor vehicle tax until 2035. Investment grants for private and commercial charging infrastructure, preferential access to KfW loans, and state purchase bonuses (several thousand euros depending on the model until 2024) further support the market.

In some respects, politicians have created a pseudo-market that could hardly survive without subsidies. After years of high inflation, many households are financially stretched – expensive purchases like cars are postponed or canceled.

Outlook and Criticism
The auto industry is pressing for lower electricity costs, faster expansion of charging infrastructure, and more transparency in charging tariffs. According to ZDK, this could be achieved through promised reductions in electricity taxes and network fees.

For the second half of 2025, most dealerships and auto companies anticipate further business declines: 54% of large enterprises and 44% of mid-sized ones expect lower revenues. While gasoline and diesel vehicle orders may stabilize after years of decline, the EV market remains dominated by political uncertainty and consumer caution. Without massive subsidies, the so-called boom is an illusion – a failing report card for the former automotive powerhouse Germany.

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Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination. Follow him on Twitter/X: https://x.com/ThomKolbe.