After thirty days under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the contours of his government are becoming clearer. From an economic policy perspective, the diagnosis is sound—but the treatment will worsen the disease.

Those who remember the Bundestag battles between then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) and his fiery rival, opposition leader Friedrich Merz, recall a man who once wrapped his rhetoric in the cloth of classical liberalism.

Back then, Merz championed free enterprise where the state overreached, demanded tax cuts where the middle class was burdened, and called for deregulation to unleash growth. Had the "Milei chainsaw" existed in his time, Merz would have snatched it up with pride.

But those sweet days of opposition are long gone. Today, the spirit of the old CDU-SPD “grand coalition” has returned—with Merz sounding more like a budget manager than a reformer.

Big Promises, Hollow Delivery

Merz began his term promising to reignite the “power of the social market economy.” But across Berlin, there’s hardly anyone who knows how to make good on that vision. He spoke of liberating the economy, cutting red tape, recommitting to Germany’s constitutional debt brake, and ending the green-socialist central planning that’s throttled growth.

Yet skepticism is warranted. His campaign promises already lie in shambles, not least on migration. Germany's border crisis continues under the fig leaf of federal police presence—a familiar pantomime. The Merz-led CDU bears sole responsibility for blocking real reform by childishly excluding the AfD from any policy alignment. This exclusion has sabotaged a possible political pivot. The “traveling chancellor,” who’s spent more time abroad than at home, will eventually crash headlong into immigration reality.

Style Over Substance

Merz’s zigzag course on the debt brake illustrates his preference for optics over substance. Instead of defending the constitutional limit on borrowing—a cornerstone of conservative fiscal thinking—he caved to his new left-leaning allies. Exploiting extra-budgetary “special funds” to circumvent the constitution is fiscal malpractice. The debt brake, once a firewall against runaway spending, is now exposed as a paper tiger.

Merz seems more inclined to avoid conflict than to defend the future. He trades tomorrow’s prosperity for today’s consensus. But real political discourse requires conflict—especially with those partners who uphold the so-called firewall against the AfD. In the moralizing echo chamber of the mainstream, real fiscal debate has no place.

Rising welfare costs due to recession, labor market erosion, and uncontrolled immigration will be patched over with increased payroll taxes and federal transfers. And as absurd as it may sound, the government’s solution is a trillion-euro “investment package” intended to give the illusion of forward momentum. Real reforms—on pensions or health care—remain off the table. Public debt is set to surge from 63% to 95% of GDP, pushing Germany into the middle tier of Europe’s debtor nations. But as long as social peace (or coalition harmony) is preserved, the price is deemed acceptable.

Fantasy Tools for a Real Crisis

Berlin bets on baby steps: a slight cut to corporate taxes, a reinstated degressive depreciation rule. These micro-measures are bundled under the marketing slogan “investment booster.” Familiar buzzwords return—cutting bureaucracy, speeding up permits, digitalizing the administration. Merz talks of a “business-friendly climate” but offers little more than old slogans in new wrapping.

Even his flagship idea—“growth ateliers”—to simplify bureaucracy for small firms is more linguistic inflation than serious reform. No ministries have been eliminated. The civil service continues to grow unchecked, the last booming “sector” of the economy. Businesses now bear €146 billion annually in administrative costs. In today’s Germany, entrepreneurs serve as fiscal prey.

Had Merz been serious about reviving Germany’s economy, he would have acted swiftly to reduce both living and production costs. Abolishing the CO₂ tax, scrapping the solidarity surcharge, or reopening the door to nuclear power would have been powerful signals. But nothing of the sort will happen. The list of rational reforms grows the deeper one ventures into Berlin’s political jungle. Merz needed a chainsaw. He won’t even pick up a paring knife.

Empty Words, Heavy Consequences

Given the crisis in Germany’s key industries—especially automotive—one might have expected a bolder course. Ending Brussels’ and Berlin’s war on combustion engines would be a start. The construction sector remains flatlined. Yet no serious attempt is made to roll back overregulation or the self-destructive climate laws. ESG mandates won’t be repealed. The “Heating Act,” the green centerpiece of the last government, will remain in place—merely “reformed.” Translation: pretend to change, preserve the core.

So far, the new government’s trajectory mirrors that of its predecessor. Merz frequently invokes Ludwig Erhard, the father of the social market economy, but betrays no real commitment to his principles. As the U.S. turns up the pressure in the trade war, Merz will face a decision: side with Brussels in building Fortress Europe, or begin dismantling the regulatory stranglehold on the Eurozone economy.

Either way, he’ll do it with a straight face. For like his predecessors, Merz too wants to go down in history as a “climate chancellor.”

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Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.