Polling expert Patrick Allocco told Newsmax on Monday there is still a path for Republicans to maintain their majority in the House in the 2026 midterm elections.
Allocco said when it comes to who controls the Senate after the 2026 midterms, it comes down to races in five states: New Hampshire, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, and Georgia, along with three states Democrats could flip if there is a blue wave: Ohio, Texas, and Iowa.
"The first five are a clear coin toss," Allocco said on "Finnerty." "Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are a little reality check."
Texas has not seen a Democrat senator since 1993, while Iowa and Ohio are states President Donald Trump won by double digits.
"These are what we call stretch or reach states that they would really have to go hard and far to win those three," Allocco said.
All the redistricting and new congressional maps in both red and blue states have led to an even playing field for both sides, Allocco said.
"The best case for the Republicans is 8 or 9 pickups," Allocco said.
While the generic ballot shows Democrats with a slight edge, Allocco said it will be a very competitive race to see who controls the House.
"With 11 months out, Republicans are in an OK position to really challenge this," Allocco said.
While many are predicting a blue wave, Allocco said polling simply doesn't bear that out.
Democrats would need to be up by eight points on a generic ballot for a blue wave, but the RealClear Politics polling average only has them up by three points, Allocco said.
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Sam Barron ✉
Sam Barron has almost two decades of experience covering a wide range of topics including politics, crime and business.
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