The State Department's internal intelligence agency reportedly expressed serious doubts earlier this year that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to consider ending the war in Ukraine.

According to The Wall Street Journal on Sunday, analysts at the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research concluded in multiple assessments and briefings that Putin had little incentive to negotiate peace, a stance that  contradicted more hopeful assessments from the CIA.

The disagreement played out ahead of President Donald Trump's August meeting with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska — an encounter that failed to produce progress toward peace.

The Journal reported that BIR's dissenting view was included in the president's daily brief and circulated among senior officials.

The bureau's analysts cited Putin's continued insistence on Ukraine's "demilitarization" and "de-Nazification" — long-standing justifications for the invasion — as evidence that the Russian leader was unwilling to compromise.

"We didn't see that [Putin] had incentive to negotiate an end to the war,"said John Williams, BIR's former director for Russia-Eurasia analysis, who resigned this year.

In contrast, CIA assessments reportedly suggested that Trump might find an opening with Putin.

Former officials told the Journal that the CIA viewed limited talks as a possible path toward progress, while BIR analysts viewed that optimism as misplaced.

The disagreement came amid broader tensions within the U.S. intelligence community.

Several BIR analysts were later dismissed as part of what the State Department described as a "reorganization," though former officials told the Journal that the firings targeted staffers who voiced skepticism of administration views.

"Differing perspectives aren't just normal — they're necessary," said a spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Diplomatic efforts have since faltered. After the failed Alaska summit, Trump hoped to revive negotiations with a second meeting in Budapest, Hungary, but that plan collapsed this month.

"I'm going to have to know that we're going to make a deal," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. "I've always had a great relationship with Vladimir Putin, but this has been very disappointing."

Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev met with U.S. officials in Florida last week and told CNN that a diplomatic solution was "within reach," noting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to use the current front lines as a starting point for talks. But the optimism was short-lived.

Days later, the Trump administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, citing Moscow's "lack of serious commitment to a peace process."

"Given President Putin's refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia's two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin's war machine," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday.

Trump, who previously held off on sanctioning Russia, said his patience ran out.

"Putin has not come to the table in an honest and forthright manner," Bessent told Fox Business.

The European Union announced parallel sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector, but Washington signaled it may take additional measures.

For now, the path to a negotiated peace — once a hallmark of Trump's foreign policy agenda — remains as uncertain as ever.

AFP contributed to this story.

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