After Glenn Youngkin's smashing victory in Virginia and the nail-biter in New Jersey, conservative pundits began suggesting it was time to jettison former President Trump and coalesce around a new conservative standard-bearer.
The calls were no longer just confined to "Never Trump" sellouts like Bill Kristol but included new right pundits like Mike Cernovich, Will Chamberlain, and Matt Walsh. It's a significant development, early tremors of what could be a historic transition.
With the "Move on from Trump" camp gaining steam across all fronts of the movement, the question becomes what or who are we moving toward?
Most advocates are ready to provide names. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis seems to be a popular heir apparent.
Republican Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Marco Rubio of Florida, and Ted Cruz of Texas are generally mentioned by new righters, and establishment folks are still hawking former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is even rumored to be raising money for a 2024 bid.
Personally, other than South Carolina's worst and the “Governor of Wal-Mart,” I like many of the names offered. They share many of my beliefs in the America First movement. Critically, though, each alternative lacks the resume or track record sufficient to warrant the abandonment of President Trump.
Before I go further, I'd like to point out that we're living in late 2021 and that discussions of the 2024 election shouldn't begin until after the 2022 midterms.
Circumstances and politics change rapidly, and by 2024 this conversation may be entirely irrelevant. That said, the tenor of the discourse and the curiously early effort to sideline the former president merit an evaluation.
To provide this, I've outlined three critical questions that must be answered before the new right can comfortably seek an alternative to President Trump.
First, which candidate embraces the totality of the America First agenda?
For those vying to succeed President Trump, embracing his policies has become the most obvious angle. Gov. DeSantis has taken an early lead in this category with his work to defy COVID-19 overreach in 2020, fueling his ascent to national stardom.
Since reaching this perch, he has diligently added to his resume with bans on critical race theory, support for law enforcement and a wholesale embrace of common good economic reform.
Further resistance to woke capital and a willingness to battle with tech oligarchs has positioned the governor for success. Still, there are outstanding questions not being asked of him.
Where is the governor on immigration? He, like all Republicans, maintains a tough stance on illegal immigration. But an adequate replacement for President Trump needs to be willing to address the pernicious blight of mass legal immigration as well.
On this, his record is vague. He voted for an expansion of visa permitting in Congress and has largely avoided the issue entirely since becoming governor.
The America First movement cannot excitedly back a candidate before securing commitments on this vital issue. We've been let down too many times before.
As for the other possible new right Trump replacements, their shortcomings are broader. Sen. Cotton is excellent on social policy, crime issues, and immigration. He's also the likeliest candidate to abandon President Trump's aversion to costly foreign wars.
Sen. Cruz still maintains a libertarian Tea Party streak at odds with America First trade and manufacturing policies. Senator Rubio champions America First economic reform but maintains an abysmal attitude toward immigration restriction.
Only Sen. Hawley checks relevant policy boxes, but he has only served in the Senate for a short time and will need to bolster his record over the next few years.
Given the glaring unanswered questions surrounding each potential successor at this stage, conservatives should refrain from ousting President Trump before they have a proven policymaker ready to assume his role.
Second, can a different candidate communicate more adeptly than President Trump?
President Trump is every soccer mom's worst nightmare. The establishment wants to be a minivan party and detests sharing a party with truck driving deplorables.
One side will have to give. The problem for the establishment? Deplorables deliver states the minivan brigades just can't. Ask Mitt Romney.
There's hope that a candidate with the right appeal can win the Rust Belt working class and the Atlanta suburbs, and I hope they're right — but until 2022, there won't be a test case.
And forgive my cynicism; I don't anticipate a Josh Hawley salsa remix to deliver the Hispanic vote. President Trump remains an unconventional and historic communicator.
While the downsides of his style are obvious, conservatives shouldn't forget his unique appeal and the transformational power it wields.
President Trump drew working-class people of all races and creeds to his America First movement, something the GOP establishment had repeatedly failed to do.
The realignment Trump's election signaled may not yet be possible without Trump at the top of the ballot. Wasting a crucial chance to topple the historically unpopular Biden administration testing post-Trump electoral theories would be a catastrophic miscalculation.
Third, is another candidate an existential threat to the progressive regime?
There's a reason the Democratic Party lost its mind after the 2016 election.
The Russia Hoax, two impeachments and summer of riots and revolution were a response to what the left understood to be an existential threat. President Trump positioned himself in opposition to the ruling class and largely delivered his promises to the American middle.
Now, I will grant Trump had difficulty executing policy from the Oval Office. Staffing, institutional knowledge, and unforced errors blighted much of his first term.
Still, these mistakes don't change Trump's standing as the single most likely man to deliver repeated shocks to the Washington uniparty.
China, trade, manufacturing and immigration control are issues he popularized and, more importantly, proved to be winners. His populist pedigree remains unmatched by the governors, senators, and the whole host of aspirants seeking to supplant him.
Post-2016, it's easy for Republicans to claim America First principles. After all, they're principles that win, and politicians love to win above all else. But conservatives should remember the price of electing "all-talk, no action" politicians. Hasty anointments often come back to bite the anointers.
Conservative activists and elected officials eager to seize the mantle should think twice before moving to force Trump from the party prematurely. While they may believe the potential for a post-Trump new right is sky-high, they should remember that potential points both up and down.
The unforeseen consequences of selecting a less committed, less effective leader could put the new right's ambitions in an early grave.
Before proceeding, aspiring leaders may want to slow down and consider one of Trump's maxims: Sometimes the best investments are those you don't make.
Collin Pruett is a Newsmax Insider. His home magazine is The American Conservative where he does operations and regularly contributes. He was one of the Trump administration's youngest political appointees and has an extensive grassroots background. In his free time, he is a baseball contributor at District on Deck.