The recently concluded NATO summit in The Hague was a great success all around.
First of all, it demonstrated unity and determination between the U.S., Canada, and European allies. It quickly reached the desired conclusion to increase the target of defense expenditures to 5% of gross domestic product: 3.5% for strictly military purposes and 1.5% for defense-related infrastructure and its protection, cybersecurity, civil defense, and resilience until 2035.
An additional significant consensus point is that military aid to Ukraine can be included in the tally of own defense expenses.
Another significant achievement was the U.S. public reaffirmation of the commitment to honor Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, a commitment to common defense. The Trump administration also appointed Air Force Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich as the Supreme Allied Commander Europe as a further commitment to NATO's future.
The one note of uncertainty is the wait for the Global Posture Review, the administration's review of U.S. military presence in the world by the Department of Defense. It is feared it might mean reductions of U.S. troops in Europe.
Third, there was also confirmation of immediate NATO modernization priorities, based on analysis of the Ukrainian Army experience. These include ammunition, air defense, logistics, communications, targeting, intelligence, long distance artillery, and further incorporation of drones in warfare, both in offense and defense mode.
Allies signed an agreement on desired capability targets within the NATO Defense Planning Process.
It was a remarkable display of consensus and purpose. However, performance is a major problem for European countries.
They sign impressive declarations, which do not get implemented for years. They use so called creative accounting, such as counting border protection troops or civilian infrastructure to raise their budget numbers without contributing new warfighting capabilities.
Thus, they want to reach common goals but the question is when. This is the reason why 2035 was chosen as a deadline.
Numerous experts claim that Russia will be ready to confront Europe in just a few years, making this deadline unrealistic; but it was adopted to preserve unity.
To remedy this problem, the highly motivated Eastern European and Nordic countries, which have a similar assessment of threat from Russia, held a minisummit beforehand. On June 2, the Bucharest Nine (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria), Eastern European countries that are celebrating the 10th anniversary of their association this year, and the Nordic countries plus Ukraine met in Vilnius, Lithuania, before the NATO summit to discuss their own urgent concerns related to deterrence and defense from Russia.
Their ambitions are much greater than NATO as a whole. Thus, they demonstrate that Europe proceeds at two speeds.
They are not only talking about 5% defense expenditures as a future goal but are close to reaching 3.5% now. These are Poland, the Baltic countries, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, and perhaps others.
Leaders of these countries also called for increasing warfighting readiness, closer NATO-European Union cooperation in logistics and mobility and capability development, and more strategic partnerships.
Particular attention was paid to defense industrial cooperation, including faster production, smarter procurement, and multinational defense projects.
Political tasks were discussed, such as increasing sanctions; Russian accountability for war crimes; denouncing Russia's partners China, Iran, and North Korea; and adopting countermeasures against Russia's hybrid warfare against Europe, including sabotage, cyberattacks, election interference, and airspace violations.
On July 1, Poland assumed leadership of another related organization: the Council of States of the Baltic Basin, consisting of the Baltics, Nordic countries, Poland, and Germany. They are engaged in increasingly effective efforts to police the Baltic Sea: to stop importing energy from Russia; to monitor the Russian shadow tank fleet, which is now escorted by the Russian Navy; to take countermeasures against hybrid warfare; and to protect critical infrastructure, which is placed in the Baltic basin.
These countries are using their conventional capabilities to the fullest and learning to cooperate with each other.
Altogether, the recent NATO summit was a success for the United States. After many years of nagging, the U.S. finally brought about a significant change in European defense strategy and its priorities.
It seems that the Europeans finally accepted the U.S. view that they must take more responsibility for their own defense.
It signifies a revival of the U.S. hegemony. Contrary to critical opinions, the U.S. is not a fading star.
The U.S. gained a serious partner in its plans for defense of Europe in the alliance of Eastern European and Nordic countries bordering Russia. They take their NATO obligations seriously, view a Russian threat in a similar way, and in some ways have autonomous capabilities to deal with issues created by aggressive Russia.
They are most prepared for a close cooperation with the United States on a partnership basis.
However, what is also required is that "old Europe" implement its promises. The credible deterrence and defense against Russia rests on all members making their contribution to the common NATO effort.
Dr. Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. She was a strategist, policy adviser and project manager on democratic and economic reforms in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Central, South and Southeast Asia for Deloitte & Touche Emerging Markets, Coopers & Lybrand, and others. She has been an adjunct scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Cannon received a B.A., M.Phil. and Ph.D. from Columbia University where she was an International Fellow and IREX Scholar at Warsaw University, and the London School of Economics. Read more of Swiatkowski Cannon's reports — Here.