"I think if he is our nominee, I think we lose," soon-to-be Sen. Adam Schiff said during a fundraiser last Saturday, according to a person with access to a transcription of a recording of the event. "And we may very, very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House."
This was last Saturday, according to The New York Times, before former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, before the picture of him, his face bloodied, waving his fist and vowing to fight with the American flag fluttering in the background.
Is anyone saying that to his face? Or more important, is he even asking the question?
Losing candidates live in a bubble. They have to, to get up and do what they do every day. President Joe Biden made that clear in his interview with Lester Holt. Asked about who he consults about whether to stay in the race, "Me. I've been doing this a long time."
And then he added, irrelevantly, "Fourteen million people voted for me to be the nominee of the Democratic Party, OK?" he said. "I listen to them."
He ran unopposed, at a time when Americans had never really seen the Joe Biden who appeared on the debate stage and continues to stumble through interviews.
On Sunday, Slate reported, he fumbled his words and lost his place more than 10 times in reading a six-minute speech from a teleprompter. This is from the official White House transcript:
"Thankfully, former (President) Trump is not seriously linjured (injured) ... But in America, we resolve our differences at the battol (ballot) box. You know, that's how we do it, at the battol (ballot) box, not with bullets. ... You know we're blessed to live in the greatest country on Earth. And I believe that with every soul — every power of my being. So tonight, I'm asking every American to recommit to make America so — make America what it i — think about it. What's made America so special?"
At another point, in a non-sequitur he denounced "the information and intimidation on election officials."
Biden is not asking anyone but himself whether he should step aside. In a Saturday Zoom call with Democratic members of Congress, obtained by The Washington Post, he pushed back against concerns that were raised that he was not getting enough information to accurately assess his own situation, citing nonexistent polls showing him ahead by four points and no damage from the debate.
"The polling data we're seeing nationally and on the swing states has been essentially where it was before," Biden said. "You noticed the last three polls, nationally, they had me up four points. And I mean, I don't have much faith in the polls at all, either way, because they're so hard to read anymore."
There are no polls since June with Biden up by four percentage points.
And the polls are about to get much worse. Ronald Reagan's approval ratings went up 11 points after he was shot.
The tone of the Republican convention has changed since the shooting, to be less fiery and partisan, and this will only help Trump with independents and undecided voters. Candidates almost always get a "convention bump." The timing could not be worse for Democrats.
The conventional wisdom is that the movement to convince Biden to step aside is fizzling in the wake of the assassination attempt. Biden is doubling down, asking not whether he should stay in the race but how he can win it.
The Democratic National Committee is talking about moving up the nomination process in advance of the convention in an effort to enforce unity by fiat. It won't work.
Democrats can smell defeat. Biden is asking the wrong question. Those around him are clearly still focused on how he can best fight to the finish and not whether he should.
Speaking truth to power is never easy. Trying to get the man up for fighting every day is different than telling a candidate what he needs to hear.
Biden doesn't trust polls, giving him a ready excuse to dismiss the bad news that is sure to come. The Adam Schiffs of the world need to speak out, publicly and privately.
"He is not getting the honest truth," one House Democrat told The Washington Post. He needs it.
Susan Estrich is a politician, professor, lawyer and writer. She has appeared on the pages of The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and The Washington Post. Ms. Estrich has also appeared as a television commentator on CNN, Fox News, NBC, ABC, CBS, and NBC. Her focus is on legal matters, women's concerns, national politics, and social issues. Read Susan Estrich's Reports — More Here.