For over 40 years, the American leaders have tolerated tariffs imposed on their citizens, but change is on the horizon. Today, Trump and his administration are introducing equalization tariffs aimed at protecting American workers and jobs.
With any significant shift in economic policy, disruption is inevitable, and most acknowledge that with a 37 trillion in debt, "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." . However, here are 10 reasons why the economy will experience short-term recalibration, followed by a massive boom by the end of the year.
1. Uncovering Fraud, Waste, and Abuse
Under the new leadership of President Trump and his team of federal investigators, it has been revealed that between $2.8 trillion and $8 trillion in fraud, waste, theft, and abuse has been discovered in various sectors of the government and economy. [i] This uncovering of deep-seated inefficiency and corruption will have long-term positive effects, as billions of dollars are freed up to benefit American citizens rather than wasteful spending. Essentially, Trump saved Social Security this year.
2. A Drop in Crude Oil Prices
One of the immediate outcomes of these economic disruptions has been a 20%+ drop in crude oil prices. This directly impacts the cost of essential goods such as food, travel, utilities, and much more. With energy costs reduced by 20-25%, Americans will see an increase in their buying power, particularly those on fixed incomes such as Social Security recipients, who were hit hard by inflation under the democrat’s previous administration.
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3. The AI Boom
Artificial intelligence is set to play a major role in driving a new era of growth. The United States has quickly embraced AI, fostering a competitive advantage over other nations. This boom in AI will lead to new businesses, startups, and greater efficiency across the American economy, providing a solid foundation for sustained growth with wide ranging efficiencies and productivity increases.
4. Lower Lending Rates and a Boost to Small Business
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will soon recognize, based on emerging data, that the combination of lower energy costs, reduced wasteful government spending, and decreased inflation necessitates a lowering of key lending rates. Thus, a 2-3% reduction in annual interest burden will open up credit for small businesses and homebuyers, helping to fuel further economic growth.
For instance, the current mortgage an credit card rates, nearly 250% higher than they should be due to the failed policies in the last administration, could fall from 7% down to 3.5%. This would inject new life into the housing market and commercial real estate across the country. Remember, that margin lending rates for stocks was down as low as 4% at many broker dealers 5 years ago. Thus, with lower margin rats, the stock markets would also be more liquid and tend to have a bull market.
5. International Cooperation on Tariffs
Countries around the world are beginning to reduce tariffs and taxes against American products. [ii] This will allow American goods to flow more freely and efficiently across borders. In addition, Trump's equalization tariffs will encourage more American manufacturing and job creation within the U.S., as those who build and sell products domestically will be exempt from these tariffs.
6. Record Investment in the U.S.
In the last 75 days of the Trump presidency alone, approximately $3 trillion in new investments have poured into the U.S. economy. This unprecedented investment will naturally lead to a profound economic impact, fostering growth and job creation across many sectors. [iii] Further, new analysis of the USA sovereign assets suggest that the United States has up to $250+ trillion in national assets value. [iv]
7. Lower Debt Burdens for Middle-Class Families
With the anticipated reduction in interest rates, middle-class families will experience more disposable income. Lower rates on auto loans, student loans, and credit cards will ease the financial strain for many Americans. This will translate into more money for spending, which will, in turn, support the broader economy. If Powell does not lower rates quickly, Trump or Congress can create tax deductions or allow for the expensing of interest payments by taxpayers.
8. Tax Deductions for Middle-Class Families
The introduction of targeted tax deductions for middle-class families will further bolster the economy. Many Americans will see more money returned to them, increasing their disposable income. With more money in their pockets, families will have the ability to spend on goods and services, stimulating economic growth.
9. Expanding Global Sales for American Products
The reduction of trade barriers will allow American businesses to sell their products and services to the global market of over 7.5 billion people. By making American goods more competitive internationally, this shift could bring an additional trillion dollars a year back into the U.S. economy, which will be taxed and reinvested, creating a major economic boost. [v]
10. Stock Market Resilience
While stock markets can fluctuate, any downturn in the market will likely be short-lived and followed by a rapid recovery. In contrast to previous crashes, such as those in 2000 and 2008, there is no fundamental crisis behind the current volatility.
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Instead, the broader economic factors—ranging from increased investment to reduced wasteful spending—will serve as the foundation for long-term growth. If the stock market faces a temporary decline of 10-20%, it will quickly rebound as buyers around the world would see value in buying USA indexes and stocks, thanks to these underlying factors. [vi] [vii]
Overall, those who sell at the bottom of a small or large correction, can miss much of the market comeback in just a few trading days. Remember, in 2009-10, the markets were up 50% from their bottom in just a few months. [viii]
As of Friday April 4, 2025, the major U.S. stock indices have declined dramatically from their recent all-time highs:
· S&P 500: Closed at 5,074 on April 4, 2025, down approximately 10% from its record close on February 19, 2025.
· Nasdaq Composite: Trading at 15,587, indicating a decline of over 20% from its peak, nearing bear market territory.
· Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 38,314 on April 4, 2025, down approximately 14.9% from its record high of 45,104.
With all of this in mind, it is just a matter of time before the buyers come in based on any news such as interest rate reductions, tariff agreements, debt reductions, or earnings reports. I simply believe that the stock market investors will come back in and gobble up great blue chip stocks and tech stocks if the down gets down 20% off the highs or if any news boosts the market. Since the US system has the least sovereign risk, the global investors prefer to invest in these USA exchanges. [ix] [x]
Conclusion: A Rosy Future for the U.S. Economy
All of these factors combined create a much more optimistic economic outlook for the United States than we have seen in recent years.
As we navigate through the short-term pain of recalibrating our economic policies and revitalizing our national balance sheet, we are setting the stage for a massive economic boom that will not only benefit American workers but also solidify the U.S. as a global economic powerhouse. With lower tariffs, reduced government waste, reasonable taxes, business friendly laws, and a thriving business environment driven by AI and global trade, the future is bright for the American economy.
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Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® is the first in the USA to rank as a Top 50 Influencer & Thought Leader in: Management, PM, HR, FinTech, Wealth Management, and B2B according to Onalytica.com and Thinkers360.com. George Mentz JD MBA CILS is a CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ®, global speaker - educator, tax-economist, international lawyer and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a EU accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under standards of the: US Dept of Education, ACBSP, ISO 21001, ISO 991, ISO 29993, QAHE, ECLBS, and ISO 29990 standards. Mentz is also an award-winning author and award winning graduate law professor of wealth management of one of the top 30 ranked law schools in the USA.Mentzenborg is just a term of art to describe the theory and process by George Mentz JD MBA ChE. CWM is for Chartered Wealth Manager ® and ChE Chartered Economist ® is a credential for economics professionals
[i] Improper Payments: 2.8 TRILLION - Information on Agencies' Fiscal Year 2024 Estimates | U.S. GAO
[ii] List of Countries Considering Lifting Tariffs on the US
[iii] Trump Racks Up $3 Trillion of Investments Into American Economy
[iv] How much is the entire United States worth? - Geographic FAQ Hub: Answers to Your Global Questions
[v] The Impact of Tariffs and Trade on the United States | Tax Foundation
[vi] Stock Market Crashes | 1926 | 1974 | 1987 | 2000 | 2008
[vii] Understanding Market Corrections: Why They Happen and How to Navigate Them - Vested Finance
[viii] S&P 500 Returns since 2009
[ix] Sovereigns Ratings List 2025 | countryeconomy.com
[x] CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker | Council on Foreign Relations