Gold has been 2025’s undisputed heavyweight champion — the best-performing commodity of the year, surging 29% and smashing records along the way. While domestic forces like looming recession risks and political uncertainty have helped fuel the rally, make no mistake: China is a main engine behind gold’s historic run, and the dragon isn’t slowing down anytime soon.1
After hitting a record $3,509 an ounce earlier this year, gold prices are holding strong around $3,300. According to JP Morgan, this is just a pit stop. The bank now predicts gold will average $3,675 by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a real shot at hitting $4,000 even sooner if demand stays hot. By the second quarter of 2026, JP Morgan says $4,000 gold will be locked in, driven by growing recession risks, more U.S. tariffs, escalating U.S.-China tensions, and relentless central bank buying.2
This isn’t market panic. It’s a structural reset of the global financial system. The CEO of U.S. Global Investors even predicted gold could reach $6,000 an ounce before the end of former President Trump’s term, citing a tidal wave of de-dollarization, sovereign gold accumulation, and a broad financial realignment.3
And at the heart of it all? China.
China’s Aggressive Gold Grab
The People's Bank of China has been the largest sovereign buyer of gold for five straight months. In the first quarter of 2025, China’s official gold reserves hit their highest level in modern history. Unofficial figures suggest they could be even bigger.
Beijing’s goal is clear: ditch the dollar, build the yuan into a global trading heavyweight, and escape Washington’s financial grip. Their push away from the dollar is both political and economic. Rising tensions with Washington have only reinforced China’s determination to insulate itself from dollar-based sanctions and financial pressure. Beijing publicly called on other nations to defy Trump’s tariff policies, rallying the world against what they call American "bullying." This is about power, and gold is at the center of the fight.
Urgent: Former Trump Advisor Warns How Gold's Historic Climb Signals a Global Shift... See Here
Gold Fever Grips China
Inside China, the gold rush is on and it’s intense. Retail demand has exploded as everyday Chinese investors scramble to hedge against a weakening yuan, collapsing growth prospects, and the looming threat of a deepening trade war. Some are pouring their life savings into gold. Others are taking out loans just to buy more. Chinese banks can’t keep gold investment bars in stock. Meanwhile, social media is pouring gasoline on the fire, whipping up a frenzy of fear, greed, and FOMO (fear of missing out) unlike anything China’s seen in decades.
Shanghai’s gold market is ground zero for the frenzy. The surge in demand has fueled unprecedented trading volumes and wild price swings. In fact, the Shanghai Gold Exchange recently issued a rare warning urging investors to stay cautious amid extreme volatility. After recently hitting a record ¥830 per gram, prices dipped slightly below ¥786. But even with that pullback, gold in Shanghai is still about $65 more expensive per ounce than gold in London, a premium that’s creating a massive incentive for gold to flow into China.4
As Samson Li, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Commodity Discovery Fund, put it: “The bull market in gold will last for a long time because the Chinese want to hedge against geopolitical tensions.” Some Chinese forecasters even see a rally toward $5,000 an ounce. And with Asia’s largest economy flexing its muscle as the world’s top gold consumer and producer, it's hard to bet against them.5
The Dollar’s Cracks Are Showing
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy isn’t exactly on steady ground. The IMF just downgraded U.S. GDP growth for 2025 to a sluggish 1.2%. The Federal Reserve is facing massive pressure to cut rates as trade tensions mount and recession warnings flash red.6
Every time Washington prints more money to try to fix the economy, the dollar weakens. Which is rocket fuel for gold. Plus, the BRICS nations are ramping up their efforts to de-dollarize, chipping away at America's financial dominance.
Conclusion
Between China's aggressive central bank buying, retail investors in a frenzy, and rising global tensions, gold’s bull market isn’t just alive, it’s thriving. And the good news? You haven’t missed the boat.
With recession fears growing and the U.S.-China showdown intensifying, gold is set to climb even higher in the months ahead. If you’re serious about protecting your savings, now’s can be the time to act. Gold isn’t just a safe haven anymore. It’s a power move.
A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold offers long-term protection for your retirement funds, shielding your hard-earned money from inflation, currency debasement, and political chaos. To learn more, call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 today.
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Max Baecker is the President of American Hartford Gold (AHG), the nation’s largest retailer of precious metals. He leads American Hartford Gold’s mission to help clients achieve long-term financial security with physical gold and silver.
Under his guidance, American Hartford Gold has delivered billions of dollars’ worth of precious metals to thousands of satisfied clients.
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Notes:
1. https://www.businesstoday.in/personal-finance/investment/story/gold-price-to-cross-4000-by-q2-of-next-year-says-jp-morgan-473186-2025-04-23
2. https://www.businesstoday.in/personal-finance/investment/story/gold-price-to-cross-4000-by-q2-of-next-year-says-jp-morgan-473186-2025-04-23
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-04-25/gold-price-hit-6000-under-trumps-term-dollar-resets-and-brics-accelerate
4. https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-news/china-gold-trade-042520251
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/gold-fever-rips-through-china-as-trump-s-trade-war-raises-stakes
6. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-04-25/gold-price-hit-6000-under-trumps-term-dollar-resets-and-brics-accelerate