Currently most of the polls indicate that the presidential election is deadlocked, with each candidate getting the same percentage and about six percent of voters undecided. What will likely lure most of the undecided toward former president Donald Trump will be the Blue Dog Democrats.
The official Blue Dog Democrats (created in 1995) are members of Congress. But many average American Democrats who voted for Bill Clinton twice, Barack Obama twice and probably Joe Biden, cannot support the current candidate from the Democrat Party.
Blue Dog Democrats believe they, “represent the commonsense, moderate voice of the Democratic Party, appealing to mainstream American values. The Blue Dogs are leaders in Congress who are committed to pursuing fiscally responsible policies, ensuring a strong national defense, and transcending party lines to do what’s best for the American people.”
Even though the Democrat Party now leans very far left, there are those who still have the values that appeal to mainstream America. In 1996, just after their formation, the Blue Dopgs in Congress helped President Clinton modify his views to fit the majority of Americans and eventually win re-election.
Clinton himself leaned left. He tried and failed to get national health insurance passed in Congress in 1994. But in the 1994 mid-term election the House of Representatives flipped from Democrat to Republican. The Blue Dogs helped to influence Clinton to take a more modern position.
Clinton did that. He lowered the capital gains tax rate from 28% to 20%, ran a surplus in the federal budget for four years, and grew the economy hat a 4% annual rate for the next four years. He also reduced government spending and eventually declared, “The era of big government is over.”
And then the Blue Dogs disappeared.
In Congress the number of Blue Dog dropped from 59 in 2008 to almost none today. Since every Democrat in both houses voted nearly unanimously for the Biden/Harris vast increases in government spending, we can assume there are none.
But this election may be different. Longtime Democrats who have quietly accepted the views of the party, may be ready to find views that are more consistent with traditional American values. These Blue Dogs may be many of the undecided in the polls. If that is the case Trump should pick up the vast majority.
The Democrats that I speak to usually say they are voting against Trump while insisting Kamala Harris will be just fine. But recently some people seem to be questioning their support of Kamala Harris and the current values of the Democratic Party.
Despite wanting to be kind and help people everywhere, there are certain limits. Allowing all of those people to enter the US illegally and use our limited resources simply does make sense. In addition, the illegal immigrants are adding to a very serious crime problem.
Moreover, Blue Dog Democrats may reason, that in addition to Harris’ immigration policy, other Harris policies have caused government spending to skyrocket, creating serious problems for the economy.
The huge budget deficits that were incurred in the last four years have increased the public debt to more than $35 trillion. The Biden/Harris administration added $775 billion to the public debt, much more than any other administration.
In fiscal 2023, the US spent $660 billion for interest on the public debt. Since there is no plan in place to ever repay that debt, maturing bonds are paid by selling new bonds. This rolling over of the debt results in bonds paying 1% to 2% interest being replaced by bonds that pay up to 4% interest.
That means the annual interest expense will rise even if no new debt is incurred. But the Democrats have promised more handouts to Americans which will increase government spending and the debt, further.
President Trump will work to hold the line on government spending. He intends to look at the entire government budget and remove all inefficiencies. That alone could reduce total spending by hundreds of billion of dollars annually. Elon Musk said he would lead this effort. That appeals to Blue Dog Democrats.
In fact, most of Trump’s policies appeal to Blue Dog Democrats which is why when they cast their vote it will likely be for Donald Trump. That could carry Trump to victory.
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Michael Busler is a public policy analyst and a professor of finance at Stockton University in Galloway, New Jersey, where he teaches undergraduate and graduate courses in finance and economics. He has written op-ed columns in major newspapers for more than 35 years.