Fearing that Donald Trump could kill off green initiatives if he wins the U.S. election, President Joe Biden's administration is racing to spend the tens of billions of dollars it had earmarked for climate action.
Trump, who is running against Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed Biden, has put the president's climate and energy agenda in the crosshairs on the campaign trail.
Biden is facing the prospect that a Republican-controlled Washington could roll back or curtail a signature achievement - his climate and social spending law - meaning billions in clean energy funding could hinge on who wins the Nov. 5 election.
"The Biden-Harris administration is trying to get this money out the door and get it fully obligated," said Katie Harris with BlueGreen Alliance, a coalition of union and environmental groups.
"It's quite the undertaking," she said.
As it stands, while billions in climate funding have been allocated since Biden signed the "Inflation Reduction Act" two years ago, there is still a sizable chunk on the table and precious little time to get it out.
BlueGreen's Harris said it would be "messy" for Republicans to roll back funding without controlling both the White House and Congress - but said Trump could certainly try to slow things down.
JOBS BOOM
The original $380 billion price tag for the clean energy provisions of the IRA now tops $1 trillion over 10 years, according to estimates, due in large part to the greater-than-expected popularity of tax credits for things such as wind and solar power.
The credits have helped spur more than $200 billion in private sector investment in electric vehicles and batteries alone, said David Kieve with EDF Action, the political arm of the environmental advocacy group.
"The sooner we see people showing up to work in clean energy jobs created by the Inflation Reduction Act, the harder it's going to be to get rid of any of it because people will see it working better in their communities," he said.
The Energy Department released a recent report that found clean energy jobs grew in 2023 at double the rate (4.2%) of jobs in the rest of the economy (2%), adding 142,000 new jobs.
Trump has vowed to rescind unspent funding in the IRA, dismissing spending tied to what he calls the "Green New Scam" as inconsequential.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he was interested in cutting some IRA spending but suggested he wouldn't necessarily favor a wholesale repeal.
No congressional Republicans voted for the law, but nor are they unified in their opposition.
Eighteen House Republicans wrote to Johnson in August to argue against repealing the law's clean energy tax credits.
"Repealing energy tax credits...would undermine private investments and stop development," they said.
"A full repeal would create a worst-case scenario where we would have spent billions of taxpayer dollars and received next to nothing in return."
Repeal would require support from Congress, but Trump could rewrite or delay implementation rules to try to gum up the rollout.
"Not only does it take some time to kick in, tax credits are over a decade," Kieve said. "Anything that calls into question some of that regulatory certainty damages our ability to move forward quickly and to benefit economically."
PRAYERS FOR STAFF?
Since Biden signed the measure into law, federal agencies have kicked into overdrive to stand up the law, taking an estimated 350 actions - maybe more - linked to implementation.
"There's just been this really quick ramp-up (on) Inflation Reduction Act funding in 2024," said Tom Taylor of Atlas Public Policy, which runs the Climate Program Portal that logs spending from the IRA and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).
As of early September, $61 billion in climate funding has been awarded, much of it allocated this year, with about $33 billion, or 35%, in remaining funding, according to forthcoming projections from the group.
That total does not include the tax credits, direct federal spending, or a separate loan program so it constitutes a "subset" of the overall climate-related funding in the IRA, Taylor said.
"There's going to be a lot of intense work, I think, to get as much funding out the door as possible," Taylor said. "But based on the current rate of awarding funding, there's no way that they will get all the funding out the door by the end of this administration."
Among recent spends, the Environmental Protection Agency said it had awarded $27 billion for a "greenhouse gas reduction fund."
"That pot of money is just so large and has the potential to roll out all over the country...but I would wonder what kind of shenanigans might be attempted," said BlueGreen's Harris.
For now, it's up to the Biden administration to head off the prospect of "shenanigans" as best - and quickly - as it can.
"Everyone should say a prayer for agency staff," Taylor said. "They're going to have a busy few months."