Wall Street Forecasts Gold Reaching $4,000 in 2026

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and other leading Wall Street investment firms are forecasting gold will reach a $4,000 milestone by the middle of 2026, Investor’s Business Daily reports.

That would be just 14 months after gold, which has risen 28% in 2025, reached a record high of $3,500 an ounce in April — driven by geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. trade war, and increased flows into exchange-traded funds backed by gold.

Goldman’s bullish gold view has a base case price of $3,700 an ounce by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026. It added that, in the event of a recession, the acceleration in ETF inflows could drive the gold price to $3,880 by year-end. On Monday, spot gold was up nearly 1% to $3,380.95/ounce.

Furthermore, in extreme risk scenarios — such as heightened concerns over Federal Reserve independence or shifts in U.S. reserve policy — Goldman said it is plausible that gold could reach $4,500 by the end of 2025.

“We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly,” concurred Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan.

JPMorgan expects gold to reach $4,000 an ounce in the third quarter of 2026.

Setting aside political and temporary market-moving data, Goldman Sachs notes that central banks have been increasing their purchases of gold since Russia waged war on Ukraine and G7 countries responded by freezing more than $280 billion of Russian assets.

Realizing that foreign reserves could potentially be confiscated, governments have increased their purchases of gold five-fold, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Worldwide, central banks’ gold holdings have risen to nearly 20% of official reserves in 2025, or 36,200 tons, according to International Monetary Fund data.

“What’s driving the gold rush is central banks’ waning confidence in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency,” said Yardeni Research Senior Contributing Editor William Pesek in a recent report. “The monetary authorities of U.S. adversaries are likely to continue buying gold as a dollar alternative.”

The People’s Bank of China increased its gold holdings for a seventh straight month in May to $3,285 trillion. “The PBOC’s determination to continue buying gold at such elevated prices demonstrates Beijing’s urgency to diversify away from the dollar,” Pesek added.

In tandem with this, China has been selling U.S. Treasuries. In February, China held $784 billion of U.S. debt. That dropped to $757 billion by the end of April.

According to JPMorgan Research, central banks have purchased 1,000 tons of gold each in the past three years. JPMorgan expects central bank will moderate somewhat in 2025, but still amount to 900 tons.

Gold ETF flows are an increasingly important factor for the gold market, according to State Street Investment Management. Of the nearly $50 billion of inflows to nonequity and fixed income ETFs in the first half of 2025, $20 billion went to gold ETFs, according to State Street.

Goldman Sachs reports that ETFs linked to gold now have $294 billion of assets under management, representing 3,000 tons of gold.

“While the key factor since 2022 used to be central bank buying alone, ETF investors are now joining the gold rally,” says Lina Thomas, commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs Research. “As both compete for the same bullion, we are expecting gold prices to rise even further.”