Global equities sold off on Friday and U.S. Treasury yields were at multi-month lows on concerns about the economy and downbeat forecasts from Amazon and Intel, which hit richly valued technology firms.
The Nasdaq Composite index fell 3% on Friday, putting it on track to confirm it is in a correction following worries about pricey Big Tech valuations and as weak employment numbers aggravated worries of a slowdown.
TOM PLUMB, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT PLUMB FUNDS, MADISON, WI:
"This is an old fashioned correction going on and it's obviously not something that anyone anticipates the moment it starts, or even when it's going (to) end, but it's just not that unusual as we passed the economic torch from the perception of growth to the perception of needing government intervention with lower interest rates to stabilize the economy.
"As we go through the fall and we start to see some impact of the Federal Reserve taking actions (in terms of rate cuts), we can see a recovery from the 16,600 levels right now to well over 18,000 by the end of the year."
CLAUDIA SAHM, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT NEW CENTURY ADVISORS AND FORMER FED ECONOMIST, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA:
"The Fed, because it hasn't started to normalize yet, has a lot of room to step in and take some pressure off the economy. This is not a crisis moment. We still have a strong economy, it's just slowing in a way that needs to get under control. Given that (the Fed) has been slow to start their interest rate reductions, doing some catch up in September could make a lot of sense. They're going to want to be – appropriately so - deliberate in their actions.
"We don't need a Federal Reserve that is in crisis mode. We're not in a crisis, just... action needs to be taken... And I think that's what will happen. It's exactly how they will calibrate it will be a question. It's unfortunate that September feels a long way away right now."
YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BMO WEALTH MANAGEMENT:
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening. The Fed is already falling behind the curve and rates are overly restrictive – a 50 basis point cut in September would only be catching-up to, rather than getting ahead of, the curve."
SOLITA MARCELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AMERICAS, UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT:
“US equity markets had been enjoying an unusually smooth rally until the middle of July. The S&P 500 had gone more than 350 trading sessions without a drop of more than 2%—the best run in 17 years. A return to higher levels of volatility was to be expected, especially as the Fed approaches the start of a cutting cycle and as investors await guidance from top tech firms on whether their heavy investments in AI are paying off. Meanwhile, political uncertainty remains elevated, especially ahead of the US presidential election in November.”
CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT ONLINE TRADING PLATFORM IG:
“In the space of barely two days markets have gone from looking forward to a Fed rate cut in a growing economy to fretting about an impending recession. Today’s huge payrolls miss and the surge in the US unemployment rate has sparked a fresh flight from risk assets already reeling from some poor earnings reports and concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East. Investors are now hoping for a 50bps rate cut in September, but worry that even this will be too little, too late to stave off a US recession.”
MICHAEL PURVES, CEO, TALLBACKEN CAPITAL ADVISORS, NY:
“This is a good excuse for investors to sell after a huge year to date rally. Does this weaker jobs number portend a recession that’s coming two quarters from now? There’s a lot of conflicting data.”
“Investors should be prepared for some major volatility, particularly in the big tech stocks. But it will probably be short-lived. The earnings reports haven’t been blockbuster, but they haven’t been bad either.”