Twenty-four hours before the U.S. presidential election, the betting is closer at this stage than before any election on the winning odds between Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, and Democrat candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.
The latest Oddschecker data gives Trump a 56% probability of victory and Harris a 44% probability. This is based on 8/11 (-138) betting odds for Trump and 5/4 (+125) odds for Harris (see chart).
Trump’s edge is slightly down from the 60% of Oddschecker bets backing him between October 2 and October 29. Harris had a 47% odds of winning during those dates.
“As we head into the final hours before election day, the betting markets are showing some decisive shifts, especially in the swing states,” says Leon Blackman, a spokesman for Oddschecker of the UK, which compiles betting odds from 80 sources.
“Trump’s lead in the overall odds reflects a trend we’ve seen steadily build throughout October, but recent betting sentiment has shown a late surge for Harris, particularly in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania,” Blackman adds.
In the swing states, Republicans are picking up betting support in Arizona and Nevada. North Carolina and Pennsylvania remain stable, with Republicans maintaining a slight edge.
Michigan and Wisconsin are the only two states where Democrats are betting favorites. In Georgia, Republicans’ probability of winning has decreased slightly (see chart).
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The Betfair Exchange has had more than $220 million traded on the U.S. election winner market, making it the second-most wagered political event in history behind the 2020 U.S. election, when a staggering $2.6 billion was bet on the election.