New York City’s mayoral election countdown has begun.
The circulation of qualifying petitions for city hall wannabes to secure a ballot position in the June 25 Democratic primary begins on Feb. 25.
This means former governor Andrew Cuomo must soon end the suspense and announce if he is throwing his hat into the mayoral ring.
The case for a Cuomo candidacy gets stronger every day. Here’s why:
First and foremost, the incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, despite his bravado, is sinking in the mire of controversy.
Not only has he been indicted by the U.S. Attorney on five counts of bribery, fraud, and solicitation of campaign contributions from foreign nationals, the feds announced in January that they expect to file additional charges.
In a 31-page filing with the federal court, Assistant U.S. Attorney Celia Cohen wrote, "law enforcement has continued to identify individuals involved in Adams’s conduct and to uncover additional criminal conduct by Adams."
Adding to Adams’s woes, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted the mayor’s former chief adviser, Ingrid Lewis-Martin, and her son Glenn, on charges of taking $100,000 from businessmen in a quid pro quo scheme in December.
Lewis-Martin, who resigned from Adams’s administration several days before the charges were filed, is accused of a "long-running bribery money-laundering and conspiracy scheme."
She allegedly used her position "to illegally influence Department of Buildings and other city decisions in exchange for money and free services for her and her son."
Lewis-Martin is not the only member of the Adams administration to be hit with criminal charges. Two of his fire department chiefs were indicted last year.
Adams is in deep trouble both personally and politically.
And if he runs for a second term, he will be on trial in April and May — the height of the primary campaign season.
Adams’s predicament is a plus for Cuomo.
In a primary battle, Cuomo should be able to co-opt many of the mayor’s center-left supporters who have had it with him.
Another break for Cuomo: His former aide, Charlotte Bennett, who accused him of sexual harassment, dropped a federal suit against him shortly before she was to be deposed in December.
In response, Cuomo filed a notice that he intends to sue Bennett for defaming him.
Also, Cuomo has been cleared of any wrongdoing by five district attorneys.
The Democratic mayoral playing field also works in Cuomo’s favor.
Announced candidates, who include City Controller Brad Lander, former Controller Scott Stringer, State Sen. Jessica Ramos, D-N.Y. - Dist. 13, and State Sen. Zellnor Myrie, D-N.Y. - Dist. 20, are all extreme leftists. Their infighting will splinter the pool of radical voters, making it easier for Cuomo to get over the finish line.
Running as a "pragmatic liberal" (or "a liberal with sanity," as Mayor Ed Koch described himself), Cuomo could patch together a winning coalition of working-class whites, browns, and Blacks who have had it with wasteful spending, corruption, spiraling crime, lousy schools, dirty streets, and managerial incompetence.
He could also strive to attract the tens of thousands of Democrats living in the City’s outer boroughs — the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn — who had cast their votes for Donald Trump last November.
A recent Politico poll conducted between Dec. 16 and Dec. 20 confirms my analysis.
It indicated that Cuomo could easily win a ranked-choice primary election for mayor.
In a ranked-choice scenario, whereby voters rank candidates in order of preference, the New York Post reported, "39% opted for Cuomo as their first-round pick, with Stringer getting 12%, Lander 10%, Ramos 9%, Adams 8%."
In addition, 48% of voters viewed Cuomo favorably, while only 22% had a positive view of Mayor Adams.
Like most major cities in the nation, New York is a Democratic town.
Approximately 56% of voters identify as Democrats while only 26% are registered Republicans. Hence, more often than not, the Democratic primary determines who the next mayor will be.
And if Cuomo runs as a centrist, pledging to take on the bureaucrats, and to stare down the radical members of the city council, he could achieve a comeback victory and be the shot in the arm the city needs to avoid a fiscal and economic calamity.
George J. Marlin, a former executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, is the author of "The American Catholic Voter: Two Hundred Years of Political Impact," and "Christian Persecutions in the Middle East: A 21st Century Tragedy." Read George J. Marlin's Reports — More Here.