Is the Eastern Mediterranean the Next Hot Spot?
July 20 marked the 50th anniversary of the illegal Turkish invasion of the European Union state, Cyprus. Since the 20th century the region has gone through seismic shifts before and since that invasion.
Under wise statecraft, the U.S. led Truman Doctrine at the onset of the Cold War oriented both Greece and Turkey within the West’s sphere of influence and alliance structure.
Subventions and arms sales proved to pay great dividends as those strategic moves diminished Moscow’s projected naval capacity into the Mediterranean Sea at maximum output, thus expediting its eventual demise.
Following this course of action, Turkey and Egypt were counted on to partner with Israel to stabilize the eastern Mediterranean and contain the Soviet Union.
This offshore balancing move by the United States was successful due to Turkey’s alignment with NATO, secular military government, and Egypt’s peace agreement with Israel.
The island of Cyprus was, at the time (1974), a thorn in U.S. foreign policy.
A nonaligned island in a strategically important location that was potentially exploitable by the Soviet Union. U.S. policy utilized the pillar strategy of Egypt and Turkey with Israel and Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Mideast to form the nexus of their containment strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean and Mideast up until the end of the Cold War.
The collapse of the Soviet Union ushered in a new era for the Eastern Mediterranean rife with risks and opportunities for the U.S.
The Oct. 7, 2023 attack by the Hamas terrorist organization against Israeli civilians once again demonstrated that the region is on the course towards a full-scale conflagration.
It's not just Hamas which has become emboldened.
The most powerful non-state actor in the world, Hezbollah, and its patron, Iran, have directly struck Israeli targets in the region with munitions and drones.
On April 13 of this year, Iran attacked Israel in a bold move that shocked the world.
Approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles rained down on Israel from Tehran.
Sorties by American and British warplanes flying out of the Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus intercepted Iranian drones on route to Israel, likely saving countless lives.
These events portend escalation and not de-escalation and will require a bold response from the U.S. to establish deterrence and stability.
Once a stalwart ally during the Cold War Turkey has reoriented its foreign policy towards the east. Turkey is now the only member of NATO which hosts Hamas figures, has called Israel a "terrorist state," and broke off all trade relations with Israel.
Turkey has yet to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and has purchased Russian surface to air defense systems, the S-400, which directly threaten the interoperability of NATO.
And, while part of NATO, has an official policy of "casus belli" with fellow NATO member, Greece, and does not recognize Cyprus.
As a result, the U.S. has shifted its priorities towards bolstering its ties with its democratic partners in the region.
On July 25, the U.S. sold Greece 20 F-35 warplanes while not permitting Turkey to obtain the jets. As part of the latest amendment to the U.S-Greece Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA), U.S. troops will be allowed access to four more military areas.
U.S. access to the port of Alexandroupoli in the north of the country has proven to be of immense value as a logistical hub for supplies into both the Balkans and Ukraine to deter further Russian and Turkish aggression.
U.S. trilateral exercises with Greece, Cyprus and Israel have become the norm.
"Noble Dina" an annual naval exercise between the U.S., Greece and Israel has now expanded to include Cyprus and France.
The annual Iniochos air drill exercises in Greece that began with the U.S. and Israel have now expanded to include both European and Middle Eastern countries.
President Biden has dropped his campaign for re-election.
A lack of coherent U.S. foreign policy before that announcement is why the Eastern Mediterranean has become a flashpoint.
The region is on the road towards full scale war between Iran and Israel with the potential to involve the U.S. directly.
There have been some bright spots from the U.S. acknowledging with both rhetoric, and arms deals, that democratic allies Greece, Cyprus and Israel are the foundation of U.S. power projection.
But there is more to be done.
The island of Cyprus has only recently had a U.S. arms embargo dropped and is not a part of NATO. It would behoove the U.S. to work with Greece towards the establishment of a naval base on the southern part of the island to bolster interoperability between U.S. forces and the island.
This network would add an important new dimension to the existing UK sovereign air bases which American fighter jets operate out of.
Working towards accessing Cyprus as a full member of NATO should be the next course of action, as a way to hinder revanchist powers such as Russia and Turkey from expanding their presence.
The world is watching the U.S. 2024 presidential election.
Peace through strength is not just a slogan, but necessary to prevent the worst disaster in the Eastern Mediterranean since the Cold War.
A change of U.S. leadership is the necessary for this to occur.
George Papadopoulos is a current Newsmax TV contributor and policy analyst. He has held previous roles as Foreign Policy Adviser on both the 2016 Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson presidential campaigns. Between 2011-2015 he worked as a research associate at the Hudson Institute. Read more of his reports — Here Now.