On March 2, 2025, in a speech marking the beginning of Ramadan, Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly declared that negotiations with the United States were "neither wise, nor rational, nor honorable."
Yet, just two weeks later, Khamenei approved indirect talks and has since accepted direct negotiations in Muscat.
The only explanation for this sharp reversal is the regime’s fear, fueled by external pressure from the Trump administration: the imminent threat of a nationwide uprising in the country.
Khamenei had hoped to use prolonged indirect talks to outlast the sunset clauses of the JCPOA while secretly preserving Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
But he soon realized that by refusing negotiations, President Trump’s threats of military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could become a reality.
The scenario is especially dangerous in a country where two-thirds of the population lives below the poverty line, and a severe water crisis is already sparking local protests.
Under those conditions, an uprising within the next month or two seems highly probable.
Let's Not Forget Iran is a Global Leader in Human Rights Abuses, Executions
According to Amnesty International, Iran was responsible for 64% of all executions worldwide in 2024 — making it the top executioner on the planet.
The majority of these executions occurred after the regime lost its strategic depth with the collapse of Syria’s dictatorship — once Tehran’s strongest ally in the region- following the loss of its strategic force in Lebanon, the Hezbollah.
Khamenei had repeatedly said, "If we don’t fight in Syria, we’ll have to fight in Tehran."
Now, with that buffer gone, the regime is forced to shift its last line of defense inward, using executions to suppress dissent and control its increasingly restless population.
Justifying Internal Repression Occurs By Manufacturing Enemies
Like many authoritarian regimes, the Islamic Republic have relied on an external enemy to justify internal crackdown and distract both domestic and global attention. One intelligence official once admitted: "The slogan 'Death to America' has helped us more than 10 intelligence agencies ever could."
Human Rights Abuses with Global Fallout
Even before President Donald Trump assumed the presidency, the international community was not unaware of the Islamic Republic’s crimes. In 1988, Ayatollah Khomeini issued a fatwa that led to the execution of 30,000 political prisoners.
By orchestrating mass executions, Khomeini aimed to silence a society that was beginning to question his leadership and the futility of the quasi-lost (1980-1988) war with Iraq.
Unfortunately, the Western world remained silent.
That deafening silence paved the way for further bloodshed in Iraq, then Syria, and now Gaza — each time weaponizing chaos to shield the regime from growing unrest at home.
A Regime of Medieval Theoretic Dogma Is Incapable of Reform
The Iranian regime, born of medieval theocratic dogma and propelled into modern history by a political anomaly, has sustained itself through domestic repression and external aggression.
Its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles is merely a continuation of its destabilizing strategy in the region.
If allowed to survive the current crisis, the regime will inevitably rebuild its network of proxy militias and resume its efforts to destabilize neighboring countries.
Genuine reform would demand political openness, the rule of law, and freedom of speech — all of which are fundamentally incompatible with the regime’s DNA.
Direct Negotiations: A Challenge to the Regime’s Ideological Core
For over four decades, the Islamic Republic has based its domestic and foreign policy on anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans.
It built its legitimacy — both at home and abroad — on a narrative of resistance against "the Great Satan," meaning the United States, a narrative used to justify its military interventions and repressive policies.
Now, with the onset of direct negotiations with the same great Satan, this core ideological framework is unraveling. This sudden shift has created confusion within the regime’s power structure.
The regime’s "hard core" — including intelligence agencies, parts of the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij militia — views these negotiations as a threat to their authority and ideological foundations.
This process could inadvertently pave the way for mass protests and civil unrest.
Mideast Peace Can Begin Begins with Eastablishing Human Rights in Iran
Depriving Iran of nuclear weapons, as was done with Libya, is an essential step toward peace in the region.
It would also relieve the Iranian people — who have paid over $2 trillion to this nuclear project — a burden that has left the majority in poverty.
They are strictly against this project.
For memory, it was the Iranian opposition NCRI who first revealed the existence of the mullahs’ secret military nuclear program, back in 2002.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Resistance has long maintained that regime change is the responsibility of the Iranian people.
Yet, the international community has a clear role to play.
One decisive step for the international community would be to condition all political and economic relations with Iran on the immediate halt of executions.
This requirement would serve as a safeguard — ensuring that even if the regime survives post-denuclearization, it cannot again unleash massacres or ignite another regional war.
Hamid Enayat is based in Paris and is a noted expert on Iran. He has written extensively on issues pertinent to Iran and the Mideast region.