Iranian Society at Breaking Point: Tehran Should Listen
In our contemporary political climate, the Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself caught in a dangerous bind: on one side, the looming threat of a national uprising; on the other, the growing possibility of military confrontation with the West.
Regime-affiliated media reported that the primary sticking point in the fourth round of nuclear negotiations is uranium enrichment.
The United States is demanding a complete halt to all enrichment activities on Iranian soil, while the regime considers this a red line and refuses to dismantle its nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.
Tehran has proposed the creation of a regional consortium to oversee enrichment, but so far, Washington, D.C. has not responded positively.
No tangible progress has been reported in the talks.
Abdollah Ganji, a prominent figure linked to the IRGC, stated on the social media platform X on May 11 that there has been no indication of any shift in the U.S. position on Iran’s nuclear rights.
Some regime-aligned analysts have even warned of a return to square one and an escalation of tensions. The Muscat negotiations appear to be deadlocked.
Without a meaningful concession — particularly from Tehran on the issue of enrichment — a breakthrough seems unlikely.
At the same time, mounting regional pressure, especially from Israel, could open the door to a phased or tactical agreement, but only if there is genuine political will in either Tehran or Washington.
Fearing the consequences of military confrontation — particularly the potential for it to trigger domestic unrest — the regime has reluctantly returned to the negotiating table.
This is despite the fact that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had previously dismissed such talks as “neither honorable nor wise."
A Temporary Solution?
A way out for the Iranian regime to preserve its enrichment facilities at any cost.
"For a limited period, we can accept a series of restrictions on the level and volume of enrichment," said Majid Takht-Ravanchi, according to remarks reported by the Tasnim News Agency. "We have not yet discussed the details regarding the level and volume of enrichment," he added.
Revelation of the 'Ranginkaman' Nuclear Site
On May 9, 2025, an exclusive Fox News report exposed details of a previously unknown secret nuclear site in southeastern Tehran, known as "Ranginkaman" (Rainbow).
The report was based on documents provided by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in the United States. According to the NCRI, the site is involved in the production of Tritium, a key component in thermonuclear weapons — a significant step beyond conventional uranium enrichment.
Just hours after the report’s release, the Iranian regime launched a coordinated media counteroffensive. Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, dismissed the report as a "recycled scenario" concocted by "Netanyahu’s mercenaries."
Nour News, linked to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, claimed the disclosure was intended to derail backchannel negotiations between Iran and the U.S.
Perhaps the most revealing reaction came from senior nuclear diplomat Abbas Araghchi, who at 2:00 AM local time, posted on X accusing the NCRI of fabricating information to serve foreign powers — a telling sign of the regime’s shock and urgency in trying to contain the fallout from this sudden revelation.
Why the Panic?
Here are the Reasons:
- The NCRI’s Credibility: The group previously exposed Iran’s secret nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak in 2002 — revelations later verified by international inspectors. Tehran knows the NCRI’s sources are real — embedded within the system.
- Tritium’s Implications: Tritium has no peaceful use in nuclear energy or medicine; it is used exclusively in hydrogen bombs and boosted-fission weapons. The revelation of a site dedicated to tritium strongly indicates a weapons-oriented nuclear program.
- Fear of a Viable Alternative: The regime is profoundly threatened by the existence of a credible opposition with insider access. That’s why it works tirelessly to discredit the NCRI as "Zionist" or "fabricated."
Iranian Society on the Edge
Iranian society is teetering on the edge of explosion. Roghani Zanjani, former head of Iran’s Planning and Budget Organization under President Rafsanjani, quoted Rafsanjani as saying that one of his fundamental disagreements with Supreme Leader Khamenei was over public welfare.
Khamenei, he claimed, did not believe in improving people’s quality of life — arguing that prosperity distances citizens from religion. In essence, the Islamic Republic has long used poverty as a political instrument.
Today, the crises in electricity and water supply have become a powder keg beneath the regime. While Iranian authorities tout the peaceful uses of their nuclear program, much of the population endures daily blackouts — especially during the scorching summer months.
According to the Iranian Parliament’s Research Center, the supply-demand gap in electricity has grown by 60% in the past two years, and the efficiency of Iran’s power plants has dropped below 40%.
The water crisis is even more severe.
Reservoirs supplying Tehran are filled to just 13% of capacity.
A senior official recently warned that if conditions continue, a wave of unrest due to water scarcity could erupt before the summer even begins.
Point of No Return
Iran’s rulers now find themselves trapped between the hammer of uprising and the anvil of war.
If the regime agrees to dismantle domestic uranium enrichment, it risks rapid internal collapse and a popular uprising.
But if it refuses, rising global pressure could lead to military confrontation — which in turn could spark a coordinated, nationwide revolt. In both scenarios, repression is no longer enough.
Iranian society has reached a breaking point.
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Hamid Enayat is based in Paris and is a noted expert on Iran. He has written extensively on issues pertinent to Iran and the Mideast region. Read Dr. Hamid Enyat's Reports — More Here.