By all accounts, following lofty expectations, Republicans in this year’s midterm elections underperformed in key purple states. following lofty expectations.
Although the GOP has a chance to win both the House and Senate, the Democratic Party emerged relatively unscathed heading into 2024 — they deepened its positions in newly claimed deep blue states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
States once considered to be toss-ups by Republicans.
It appears President Joe Biden recognized as much after declaring he was confident [his policies] were working, and that the country needed to stick with them.
Republicans nationally were left blindsided by the underwhelming election night performances in key battleground states, and as a result assigned blame on everything and everyone from former-President Donald J. Trump, to abortion, to the quality of candidates running.
However, all of these explanations, emanating from both parties, fail to truly explain why America saw a sitting president’s party not suffer humiliating losses halfway through his historically abysmal term.
In the wake of record-breaking inflation, growing global instability, rising crime, and failing schools, lackluster GOP performance is as concerning as it is astonishing.
Perhaps a plausible argument is that the COVID-19 pandemic shifted the electoral map for Republicans and made the road to 270 (the amount of electors needed to secure victory in a presidential election) arduous and questionable come 2024.
And it indeed will be a hard row to hoe if we don't call a timeout — making some much needed adjustments.
As a current Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., appointee, this writer worked hard this midterm season endorsing and campaigning for champions of conservatism nationwide.
This writer was initially optimistic about the likelihood of a widely reported "red wave," one which would flow into blue states that kept President Trump's 2020 electoral count at 232.
This seemed like a sure bet, as we saw an influx of American refugees fleeing from states that implemented draconian COVID-19 restrictions in favor of bastions of freedom like Florida and Texas.
To clarify, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, states like Texas and Florida received additional congressional seats, while Pennsylvania, Michigan, and California all lost congressional seats.
While conservatives initially cheered the results of added seats to conservative southern powerhouses, only now have we faced the effects of such appropriations.
Republicans in Florida decimated their Democratic opponents, with Gov. DeSantis winning reelection by nearly 20 percentage points.
Gov. Greg Abbott, R-Texas, defeated Democratic-darling (former congressman and presidential hopeful) Beto O’Rourke by almost a million more votes as he also cruised to reelection.
However, while those wins may be necessary, they don’t help you get the ball into the end zone on the road to 270 electoral votes heading into the next presidential election.
The GOP will need to win states in the Rust Belt.
That is where our problems begin.
Look no further than senator-elect John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.
An ultra-progressive, self-proclaimed Democratic-Socialist beat Dr. Mehmet Oz in a race that decimates the "candidate quality" argument made by conservatives looking to explain their disappointment.
Any argument can be made that Fetterman’s health ought to have been concerning, if not disqualifying, just as Biden's perceived decline in acuity could be.
The Republican establishment and MAGA king-makers rejected midterm primary sensation Kathy Barnette in the Pennsylvania Senate race, despite her being the only candidate who could have truly appealed to Democratic voters, women, and minorities.
For those who suggest the reversal of Roe v. Wade 410 U.S. 113 (1973) is to blame for GOP losses, how do they explain victories of Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Gov. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio?
Both men hail from "traditional battleground states," that implemented policies to protect the right to life.
Lastly, President Trump cannot be to blame for all, given that many of his endorsed candidates won in contested seats like J.D. Vance of Ohio, as well as over 100 more.
You can claim the Republican"red wave" took place in red states, solidified the base, and literally solidified Ohio, Florida and Texas, as deep Red states entering the 2024 election.
Our issue now is that if we win all of our red states as well as the purple states of Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, it only gets us to 265 electoral votes.
The only plausible explanation for our inability to penetrate true blue states remains the COVID-19 pandemic and the geographic shift of conservatives across the country.
Southern red states got more red and Rust Belt states got more blue.
So, where does this leave Republicans going forward? What is our plan to reach 270?
Clearly the "Commitment to America" pushed by GOP leadership fell flat with independent Americans across the country, but that's because Republicans do not understand that the people who vote for lockdown champions like John Fetterman or Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, D-Mich., are not voting based on policy; they vote based on the new American culture, one which is rooted in non-biblical progressive ideologies and fear of white conservative "MAGA" patriots gaing control of the nation.
While this offends many conservatives, without a plan to counter this narrative, it will be a tough road ahead in salvaging the America as we conservatives once knew it.
With that understanding, who is the candidate that could lead us to victory for 2024?
Given the degree that the electoral map has shifted and the burgeoning electoral power from young Americans — who have all but completely abandoned the conservative movement — we can't win going forward without a candidate who can go into blue states and pull from that electorate.
While Republicans have solidified deep red states, the new Republican road to 270 includes must win purple states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, as well as then winning at least one deep blue state (out of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) — in order to reach 270.
The days of conservatives hoping that all we have to do is turn out enough conservative voters — and pray that Democratic voter turnout lags — to secure victory, are gone.
Frankly, even though this writer loves and will support the GOP, he's unsure that the current game plan will allow it to get the ball across the goal line of 270 with the new demographic shifts in the deep blue states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
God may not have revealed to us who he has ordained as our nation's next leader, but the reality of the present day, as we head into the locker room for halftime adjustments post-midterm battle, is that we have yet to figure out how to break down the Democrats' defenses, and doing so in a way which fully empowers our Republican offensive go-to plays in America's battleground states.
Now is the time to catch the left off guard, get them on the defensive, and change the entire gameplan in the second half. God is in control; the GOP needs to fully embrace that.
Meanwhile, we true conservatives shall consistently remain humble, in prayer, and doing what is right.
Doing so will get us to victory in 2024!
Jack Brewer, formerly of the NFL, played for the Vikings, Giants, Eagles and Cardinals. He is America First Policy Institute’s Chairman of the Center for Opportunity Now, and former White House appointee servng on the Congressional Commission for the Social Status of Black Men and Boys. Read Jack Brewer's Reports — More Here.