In less than 100 days, Virginians will decide who their next chief executive will be.
On paper, Winsome Earle-Sears should be a dream Republican candidate. She's won statewide in a purple-trending state, becoming lieutenant governor in 2022.
She's a former state legislator, a Marine, and an immigrant from Jamaica who embodies the American Dream.
She made history as the first woman of color elected statewide in Virginia, and if she wins this fall, she’d be the first Black woman to serve as governor of any U.S. state.
In a former slave state, no less.
But a historic candidacy alone won’t carry the day.
What Earle-Sears lacks so far is a defining cause, an absence explaining the lack of energy in the race and why her Democratic opponent, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, looks likely to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
This isn't to say Earle-Sears doesn’t take strong positions.
She does, and on many social issues, she's to Youngkin’s right.
She backs a 15-week abortion ban and is opposed to same-sex marriage.
She's pro-Second Amendment, pro-right to work, and, like Youngkin, a staunch advocate for school choice.
These stances will appeal to the state’s GOP grassroots activists.
But having the right positions isn’t the same as offering a compelling reason to vote.
None of these, at least so far, have become her campaign's rally cry.
That matters since campaigns often hinge on a single, galvanizing issue.
Youngkin had parental rights in education.
Tim Kaine had the death penalty.
Jim Gilmore had the car tax.
Even Ralph Northam, back in 2017, turned his race into a litmus test on Confederate monuments.
Earle-Sears has plenty of options.
Abigail Spanberger has danced around the right to work issue, claiming she wouldn't "fully" repeal existing statutes but would be open to reform.
That’s Democrat-speak for "Yes, but not all at once."
It’s also a threat for Virginia's business climate and a missed opportunity for Sears to position herself as the pro-business candidate.
She could also go full Youngkin and lean hard into school choice.
Spanberger may not have had a Terry McAuliffe-style meltdown like in 2021, but she's still in the pocket of the teachers' unions, the same unions that have bankrolled her congressional campaigns and endorsed her in this race.
The contrast writes itself.
After three terms in Congress, Spanberger answers to the unions as a fixture of the D.C. political class, while Earle-Sears answers to parents as a local crusader.
Another obvious, and politically popular, strategy: serve as a check on the General Assembly. Democrats are expected to retain control of both chambers after November, regardless of who occupies the governor's mansion.
That means the next governor's veto pen may be the last line of defense between Virginians and a leftward lurch in policy.
But so far, Earle-Sears is campaigning as if voters already understand this, or worse, don’t care.
Earle-Sears was lucky to avoid a costly primary fight.
That cleared the path for her nomination, but also denied her a chance to build name recognition. Many Virginians still don't even realize she's the current lieutenant governor, or what she stands for.
And right now, the conservative base in Virginia is hungry for someone who stands for something.
Earle-Sears should be leaning into her conservative credentials.
Whether on school choice, right-to-work protections or checking legislative overreach, she can offer Republicans a reason to show up to the polls.
There’s still time.
With a little over three months until Election Day, plenty can change.
But the national political climate won't help her much. With Republicans controlling Congress and the White House, Democrats head into November with a slight advantage.
Still, voters in Virginia are fed up with blue-state Democrats doing everything they can to block Trump's agenda.
From out-of-touch priorities like allowing biological males in girls' sports to soft-on-crime policies, there’s a populist undercurrent Earle-Sears could tap into if she gives these frustrated voters something to rally around.
Earle-Sears must also deal with a tough Northern Virginia audience, including thousands of federal employees, many of whom have been given or are bracing for layoffs.
Why, they'll ask, should they reward another Republican with their vote?
It's a fair question, and one that Earle-Sears needs to answer fast.
Earle-Sears has a compelling personal story.
Her candidacy is barrier-breaking, and a win would earn her a permanent place in Virginia’s political history.
But voters don't turn out to enhance someone's bio page.
They want a reason. They want conviction. They want clarity.
A résumé got Earle-Sears the nomination.
A cause can win her the election.
Jacob Lane is a Republican strategist and school choice activist. He's worked for GOP campaigns at the federal, state, and local levels. He's also worked with various PACs and nonprofits. Read Jacob Lane's Reports — More Here.