In response to late-breaking news, various ones of us can have differing predictions regarding whether yesterday’s transparently political conviction of former President Donald Trump by a Manhattan jury will ultimately sabotage or seal his return ticket to the Oval Office.
This writer strongly bets on the latter occurrence.
For possible reference, consider that according to a FiveThirtyEight poll, on April 22, the date when that “hush money” lawfare trial began, Trump has since gained about one point, currently leading Biden by 1.4 percentage points.
Nevertheless, even before that mind-numbingly blatant election tampering development, a recent POLITICO headline article regarding the 2024 election stated “Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden.”
As the left-leaning media organization noted: “All year, Democrats had been on a joyless and exhausting grind through the 2024 election. But now, nearly five months from the election, anxiety has morphed into palpable trepidation, according to more than a dozen party leaders and operatives.”
And little wonder, as POLITICO’s interview with long-time Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns laments, “If the frame of this race is, ‘What was better, the 3.5 years under Biden or four years under Trump,’ we lose that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.”
Polling surveys support reasons for that trepidation and gloom over dimming prospects for Joe Biden’s White House lease renewal following November elections.
According to Rassmussen Reports, this month 54% of Democrats said they favor dumping Biden for an unspecified alternate option versus just 38% of Democrats who said they would disapprove of replacing him on the ticket despite growing concerns about his meandering policies and mental and health failings.
By comparison, 43% of Republicans and half of independents said they would prefer to have Democrats replace Biden. With Republican and independent voters combined, 49% would approve of Biden being replaced on the ticket, with 37% disagreeing.
Nevertheless, the Rassmussen survey indicated a large majority of Democrats understanding they are stuck with Biden, with 57% saying his replacement is unlikely, and 38% believing otherwise.
With no discernable domestic or international policy achievements to run on, Democrat lawfare tactics to destroy Donald Trump through incessant litigation as their presumptive archrival instead appear to be having an opposite consequence.
And whereas a Siena College poll shows Biden leading Trump by 8 points (47% to 39%) among New York registered voters, consider that he had won the Empire State by 23 points in 2020.
Meanwhile, other than dwindling Black voters, Biden is currently underwater with unfavorable ratings by 53% of Latinos and 54% of whites.
Whereas a growing Democrat majority have strong reasons to replace Biden as their 2024 contender, their dilemma is total lack of an alternate candidate with better prospects of winning, much less of leading the free world.
Even if a Democratic convention switcheroo were possible — which it won’t be unless Joe Biden can somehow be persuaded to step down — they then face a bigger problem named Kamala Harris.
A recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll reported in The Wall Street Journal showed that whereas Harris is the Democrats’ favored pick if Joe drops out, she trails Trump in head-to-head matchups in all seven swing states by margins ranging from 3 points in Michigan to 10 in North Carolina.
Perhaps recall that Biden tapped Harris to be his 2020 running mate after having announced he would limit that selection to a minority woman, albeit one who had publicly criticized him during primary debates as an anti-school busing segregationist.
This followed a similar Biden promise before the South Carolina Democratic primary to appoint an African-American woman to the Supreme Court, which as The Wall Street Journal observes, “has made no bones about his appeals to identity politics to get votes.”
Also remember that a primary high-profile assignment immediately dumped on Harris was to address a surging southern border invasion, a top voting issue which has metastasized to a full-blown disaster under her watch.
In any case, there is little Democrats can do about replacing Biden without his consent after having already won 3,664 delegates and leaving only 1,968 needed to win the nomination.
And there’s no way his heavily invested handlers will allow that to occur.
No, the only realistic way to defeat Joe Biden will occur in November mail-in and in-person ballot boxes.
I’m prayerfully counting on widespread legitimate public outrage over desperately corrupt and unconstitutional Democratic banana republic-style lawfare tactics to make that far more — not less — likely to happen.
Larry Bell is an endowed professor of space architecture at the University of Houston where he founded the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and the graduate space architecture program. His latest of 12 books is "Architectures Beyond Boxes and Boundaries: My Life By Design" (2022). Read Larry Bell's Reports — More Here.