Having previously looked forward to witnessing an enlightening issue-focused primary debate among all "legitimate" GOP rivals, I regrettably no longer believe this to be either possible or ultimately constructive.
By legitimate, I am referring to candidates that have any reasonable chance of winning whereas they take available stage time away from others who bring out messages that warrant serious discussion.
Regarding inclusivity, whereas Donald Trump would top any GOP list of competitive contenders, opportunistic attempts to bring him down rather than raise the nation up will likely drive narratives away from addressing urgent priorities and problems.
Consequentially, expect sound bite spectacle and sensationalism to distract from substance and sincerity.
From Trump's no-win perspective, both as a pugilist and punching bag, there seems little reason to climb in a crowded ring of grandstanding detractors refereed by a hateful media.
As recitals of leadership arise, anything the former president says will be dismissed and derided as braggadocio. And expect charges of bullying when he charteristically fights back.
The big point here is that Trump's base of supporters — and there are many — already know and highly value his accomplishments. They see them starkly contrasted by abject Biden administration failures impacting diverse aspects of lives and futures.
Few need to be reminded how rapidly and disastrously reversals of Trump policies have changed America for the worse: the loss of energy independence; loss of control over inflationary spending; loss of national sovereignty through an open border; and loss of trust in a fair judicial system; to highlight just a few examples.
Paramount 2024 GOP presidential and congressional objectives are twofold: to elect candidates who can not only win, but also be counted on to take effective action on vexing national and global challenges.
This is quite a different type of assessment than based on debate style points awarded by media pundits for scripted zinger statements in a de facto rigged beauty contest.
The optics are further misleading in presenting a field of equals regardless of relative polling support, thereby offering each contestant the same amount of very limited time to comment on complex issues.
Expect much of that valuable time to be consumed by desperate Hail Mary attacks by weak wannabes on front-runners — primarily target-eligible Trump — candidates they will go after regardless of whether he is there or not.
Yes, imagine Chris Christie who is polling at about 1% leading this pile-on amid loud cheers by the fiercely anti-Trump Wall Street Journal along with liberal networks.
Debate venues and hosts can also significantly influence outcomes.
Recall Trump's bad 2020 experience when Fox's Mike Wallace smugly disputed and disallowed his challenge to the authenticity of Hunter Biden's "laptop from hell" which greatly benefited Joe.
Given that Fox seems to generally favor Gov. Ron DeSantis, should Trump risk a similarly damaging repeat Fox performance in the first GOP primary debate co-hosted by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum?
And from his standpoint, why would he?
Despite — and perhaps partly due to — unrelenting attacks from Democrats and establishment Republicans alike, he regularly polls in a growing trend well ahead of all opponents in both parties.
He typically beats DeSantis by 20 points or more, with other GOP stragglers lagging in low single digit territory.
Having said this, Ron DeSantis would probably be an excellent president, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott an outstanding vice president pick.
Meanwhile, with fewer than half of Democrat voters wanting Joe Biden to run again, his VP Kamala Harris faring even worse, and no viable alternative to replace either of them, Trump and DeSantis are also both clearly electable.
Add to this, cascading evidence of massive Biden family foreign influence peddling under investigation by multiple House committees which appears to tie directly back to profiteering and related coercive national threats involving the former U.S. vice president.
Above all, whether absent or present on stage, Trump's full patriotism and proven record in office remain undebatable.
Larry Bell is an endowed professor of space architecture at the University of Houston where he founded the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and the graduate space architecture program. His latest of 12 books is "Architectures Beyond Boxes and Boundaries: My Life By Design" (2022). Read Larry Bell's Reports — More Here.