Four states that President-elect Donald Trump won in November are expected to gain House seats after the 2030 census, and five states he lost could lose seats, according to population estimates for 2024 from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Consulting firm Election Data Services revealed that Texas and Florida would gain two seats each and Arizona and Idaho one seat each if congressional reapportionment were "held today," The Hill reported Monday.
Trump carried each state in his victories in 2016 and this year, and only lost Arizona narrowly in 2020. Republicans control both House seats in Idaho and have huge advantages in Arizona, Florida, and Texas.
Meanwhile, California would lose two seats, and Illinois, Minnesota, New York and Oregon would lose one each if apportionment were held today, the firm said. Trump lost all five states in his three elections.
The increase in seats in the right-leaning four states could help Republicans, who have struggled with slim House majorities in the past two years. At the beginning of the next Congress on Jan. 3, Republicans will hold a 220-215 majority, the smallest in modern history by number of seats, according to the Pew Research Center. That doesn't include three GOP seats that are expected to be vacant until special elections are held early next year.
"Do the math. We have nothing to spare," Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters this month. "But all of our members know that. We talked about that today, as we do constantly, that this is a team effort, that we've all got to row in the same direction."