With the 2024 U.S. presidential election fast approaching, a new AtlasIntel poll reveals critical insights into voter preferences, candidate support, and the main issues driving voter sentiment nationwide.
AtlasIntel has released a comprehensive national poll on voter opinions, approval ratings, and key election issues. Conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 29, this survey of 3,032 likely voters provides a glimpse into the political landscape.
The poll, boasting a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points at a 95% confidence level, reveals the sample's demographic breakdown and captures a balanced view of voter preferences across political lines.
Of the respondents, 51.7% identified as female and 47.5% as male, while 33% identified as Democrats, 36% as Republicans, and 31% as independents.
In the matchup between Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump, respondents indicated varying levels of support and, perhaps more tellingly, degrees of outright rejection for each candidate. However, 49.5% of likely voters supported Trump, while 47% supported Harris.
When asked which candidate they rejected "more," 50.1% said Harris, while 48.6% said Trump.
Alongside the candidate-specific questions, the poll also explored voters' preferences regarding voting methods. This data aims to reflect any shifts in voting behavior since previous elections, highlighting a continued trend toward early and mail-in voting methods.
Thirty nine percent said they favored in-person early voting, 31.1% preferred in-person voting on election day, and 27.3% opted for mail-in or absentee ballots.
AtlasIntel is noted for its precise polling record, including the lowest margin of error in recent U.S. and international elections. The organization's A-rating from FiveThirtyEight and endorsements from The New York Times underscore its reputation.
Known for accurate predictions during challenging election cycles, AtlasIntel successfully anticipated outcomes in key U.S. swing states in 2020 and other international contests, including Argentina's recent elections and Colombia's presidential races.
The AtlasIntel poll findings align with a New York Times/Siena poll showing Trump leading Harris by one point, 47% to 46%.
An Economist/YouGov survey shows that 39% expect a Trump victory, 36% foresee a Harris win, and 25% remain uncertain.