While the Herschel Walker bid to unseat Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., remains in a statistical tie and likely headed to a runoff after Nov. 8, incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp is staying above the majority threshold and leads Democrat firebrand Stacey Abrams by double digits in the latest polling from Georgia by The Atlanta-Journal Constitution.
Kemp leads Abrams by 10.3 points (51.0% to 40.7%) in the poll conducted by the University of Georgia, where Walker was a national champion in football and a Heisman Trophy winner. Only 6% of likely voters in the poll remain undecided, while libertarian Shane Hazel pulled 2% support.
The results are consistent with the recent polls in the races. The Trafalgar Group had Kemp over the 50% majority and a 9-point leader over Abrams, who has been frequently called out for saying the 2018 gubernatorial election against Kemp was rigged.
Walker remains within the 3.1 percentage point margin of error, trailing Warnock by 3 points (46.4% to 43.4%). If neither candidate gets at least 50% of the vote, the race will head to a two-candidate runoff after Nov. 8 — much like both Senate seats in Georgia on Jan. 5, 2021. Libertarian Chase Oliver is drawing 4% support from the leaders, while 6% of likely voters remain undecided.
In a case of a divided GOP, 9% of Kemp voters are backing Warnock, while 5% are backing Oliver instead of going with Walker — just 1% of Abrams voters back Walker — according to the AJC.
Still, the midterms are a referendum on President Joe Biden, who drew just 38% approval in the poll. Almost all registered Republicans, nearly half of the independents, and just 13% of Democrats give Biden a poor grade.
Also, just 20% of voters see the country headed in the right direction.
The University of Georgia's School of Policy and International Affairs polled 1,030 likely voters Sept. 25 to Oct. 4. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.