Former President Donald Trump has cut President Joe Biden's lead in half in a potential 2024 election matchup in California, according to a new poll.
The survey by the University of California, Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) showed that Biden leads Trump by 15 points (46% to 31%) in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 election.
But Biden enjoyed a 30-point margin of victory in 2020.
The poll found that 23% of California voters say they are undecided, while hardly anyone who voted for Biden or Trump in 2020 is defecting to the other candidate.
"However, large proportions of 2020 Biden voters and Trump voters do not express a preference in the current poll if Biden and Trump are the only candidates," IGS said.
Biden's lead over Trump is similar in a simulated four-candidate field including independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West. In that scenario, Biden gets 43%, Trump 29%, Kennedy 9%, and West 4%.
"While Biden is in no danger of losing California, his low approval ratings underscore the deep challenges the president faces in solidifying the support of his Democratic base and appealing to swing voters. It is a clear warning sign for his national campaign," IGS Co-Director Eric Schickler said.
The poll found that Biden’s job rating is under water in The Golden State for the first time in his presidency, with 52% disapproving of his overall performance and 44% approving.
California voters disapprove of Biden’s performance in handling many of the major issues facing the nation by considerable margins.
These issues include:
- The war in Ukraine: 46% approve, 46% disapprove, 8% no opinion.
- The war between Israel and Hamas: 35% approve, 55% disapprove, 10% no opinion.
- Relations with China: 34% approve, 46% disapprove, 20% no opinion.
- The economy: 37% approve, 55% disapprove, 8% no opinion.
- Crime and criminal justice: 32% approve, 53% disapprove, 15% no opinion.
- Inflation: 31% approve, 61% disapprove, 8% no opinion.
- Immigration: 30% approve, 60% disapprove, 10% no opinion.
The IGS survey also found that Trump is the choice of 57% Republican voters in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with 12%, is the former president’s nearest opponent.
California GOP rules dictate that if any candidate secures more than half of the primary votes, he or she will be awarded all of the state’s 169 convention delegates — the country’s largest state number.
The latest Berkeley IGS poll was conducted Oct. 24-30 among 6,342 registered California voters and included a weighted subsample of 4,506 likely voters.