The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted the Montana Senate race from "toss up" to "lean Republican" after a new poll showed Republican challenger Tim Sheehy with a lead of 49% to 41% over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.
"Today we are making a major shift — moving the Montana Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Republican," the Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor wrote. "This means that Republicans are now an even heavier favorite to win back control of the Senate, regardless of the result at the top of the ticket."
Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate but risk losing control as three of the 23 seats they are defending are considered toss-ups while another, West Virginia, is nearly certain to flip to Republicans.
Sheehy, according to an AARP poll that surveyed 600 likely voters in Montana, leads Tester 49% to 41% when other candidates are included and 51% to 45% head-to-head.
Taylor in her report said Republicans, with less that two months before Election Day, "are defying political gravity in some key states, such as Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. But glaring problems remain in those deep red states. With the now-open seat in West Virginia sitting in Solid Republican, the map begins at 50-50 for Democrats. That means that if former President Trump wins, Republicans will already have the majority."