Trump campaign pollsters have warned of an enthusiasm bump for Vice President Kamala Harris after the ouster of President Joe Biden and it has slightly moved the needle heading into this week's Democratic National Convention.
Harris (47%) leads Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump (44%) and the field (Robert F. Kennedy 5%) among registered voters – just outside the margin of error in the latest The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday on the eve of the DNC. Trump had held Biden to a virtual tie before he was ousted and replaced with Harris last month.
The race:
- Harris 47%
- Trump 44%
- RFK Jr. 5%
- Someone else 2%
- Cornel West 1%
- Jill Stein 1%
Also, this is a national poll, and those tend to skew favorable to Democrats because of the large Democrat strangleholds in the large blue states of California and New York.
The national race in early July was in Trump's favor by 1 point in this poll. But then Trump dodged the bullet of an attempted assassin and suddenly Biden was forced to hand the Democrat primary nomination to the Harris just one week later.
Notably, the Post already polled a hypothetical race between Trump and Harris before the shooting and quick ensuing ouster of Biden, and that poll had Harris as a 2-point leader. So the move for Harris since her elevation to the top of the ticket is statistically insignificant because it is within the margin of error, according to The Washington Post.
"Given the margin of error in this poll, which tests only national support, Harris' lead among registered voters is not considered statistically significant," the analysis read. "The vice president's 3-percentage-point advantage in a race that includes third-party candidates is slightly smaller than Biden's 4.5-point popular vote margin in 2020, which translated into an electoral college majority."
One of the biggest shifts toward Harris, though, is among voters under age 40. She leads Trump head-to-head by 25 points, whereas Biden led by just 7 points – making Trump's age now a point of emphasis for Democrats.
Also, independents had favored Trump over Biden by 2 points, but Harris now leads Trump among America's middle by 8 points.
Harris has consolidated the Democrat base, too. Biden had just 77% support in his own party as they were anxious to get him out after his late June debate versus Trump showed his weakness as a candidate. Now Democrats are 92% behind Harris.
On the issues, Trump is favored on the economy, inflation, immigration, and Israel. Harris is favored on the Democrat stalwart election issues of race, abortion, healthcare, democracy, appointments to the Supreme Court, and gun violence.
Still, the economy tends to be the No. 1 issue and 72% say the economy under the Biden-Harris administration is "not so good" or "poor."
The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll was conducted Aug. 9-13 among 2,336 U.S. adults, including 1,901 registered voters. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points for U.S. adults and 2.5 points among registered voters.