Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., continues to face a tough re-election campaign as he runs for a fifth term in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
The nonpartisan election handicapper Sabato's Crystal Ball announced it was moving Bacon's race against Democrat State Senator Tony Vargas from "toss-up" to "lean Democrat."
The move comes amid recent polling that shows Vargas leading Bacon by 6 points according to recent polling from CNN and Survey USA.
Vice President Kamala Harris also holds a strong lead over former President Donald Trump in the congressional district, which represents Omaha, Nebraska. The state allocates its electoral votes via congressional district, and two at-large, for a total of five, giving Harris the chance to nab a key electoral vote in the deep-red state.
Bacon, "is likely behind, and he's running in a district that leans to the Democrats for president," Kyle Kondik, the managing editor for Sabato's Crystal Ball said.
The Cook Political Report, another nonpartisan election forecaster, rates the race as "toss-up."
In 2022, Bacon defeated Vargas by 2 points.