President-elect Donald Trump's vow to impose sweeping new tariffs has sparked anxiety across U.S. industries, from retail to manufacturing. Before the potential policy shift, companies are rushing to import goods, and logistics firms reported a surge in "front-loading" orders, CNBC reported Wednesday.
Trump's promise to implement across-the-board import tariffs has sent shockwaves through the U.S. supply chain. In his victory speech Wednesday morning, Trump reaffirmed his commitment, stating, "promises made, promises kept."
The anticipated tariffs, which range from 10% to 20% on all imports and as high as 100% on Chinese goods, are driving an urgent wave of import orders among U.S. retailers and manufacturers seeking to offset the anticipated cost hikes.
"This is 2018 all over again," said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics, referring to Trump's previous tariff hikes. According to Brashier, demand for freight capacity is expected to rise sharply, with trucking, warehouse, and shipping rates following suit.
In response, shares of major logistics firms rallied Wednesday, including trucking giants J.B. Hunt Transport Services and freight rail companies such as Norfolk Southern and CSX. However, shares of ocean carriers, particularly Maersk, declined as investors worried that tariffs could depress international trade volumes. Despite those concerns, shipping analysts argued the market reaction might be premature.
"The uncertainty of the situation, rather than imminent doom, drives the reaction," said Ben Slupecki, an analyst with Morningstar, suggesting potential opportunities for ocean carriers as companies look to import more goods before tariffs hit.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said he expects a near-term surge in containerized imports.
"Especially for goods that aren't time-sensitive," he said.
Industry data from Xeneta showed that similar "front-loading" tactics during the 2018 trade war led to a 70% spike in ocean container rates. Peter Sand, a chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, warned the same reaction could follow, especially if tariffs against China reach as high as 100%.
Further complicating the picture, logistics analysts cite potential disruptions from labor issues and seasonal shipping bottlenecks. Stephen Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, predicted that Trump would announce new tariffs shortly after taking office in January, saying that "import taxes" will likely intensify inflation pressures.
Lamar cautioned that while accelerating imports might offer temporary relief, the broader impacts on freight and labor remain concerning, with issues such as port strikes and the Lunar New Year surge looming.
Retail and manufacturing leaders have also voiced concerns over the broader economic impact. National Retail Federation President Matthew Shay said his organization would work with Trump's administration to create fair trade policies but warned that "across-the-board tariffs on consumer goods … amounts to a tax on American families."
The Trump administration might also revisit the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026, potentially impacting cross-border trade. The looming policy changes have left some companies uncertain about ongoing investments in Mexico.
Redwood Mexico CEO Jordan Dewart reported an uptick in customer inquiries about moving goods north before tariffs take effect, noting that these changes could raise fourth-quarter freight rates, particularly for northbound trade with Mexico.