Former President Donald Trump is holding a lead over President Joe Biden in six out of seven of the nation's most competitive battleground states, both on test ballots that include third-party and independent candidates and in a one-on-one matchup, according to a new Wall Street Journal Poll.
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The poll, reflecting dissatisfaction with the economy and doubts about Biden's job performance and ability to serve, showed Trump with leads of between 2 and 8 percentage points in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona when the independent and third-party candidates were included, and by similar numbers with just himself and Trump, reports The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.
In Wisconsin, Biden came out ahead by 3 points on both test ballots.
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The battleground states' ballot poll was conducted of 600 registered voters from each of the 7 states from March 17-24 and carried a 4-point margin of error.
In 2020, Biden took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all of which had backed Trump in 2016. He also won by narrow margins in Georgia and Arizona that year.
Nevada and North Carolina are also seen as being in play. Biden took Nevada in 2020, but Democrat margins have shrunk in that state. Trump won North Carolina in 2020 but by the slimmest margin.
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In all seven states, negative views of Biden's job performance overshadowed positive views by 16 percentage points or more, and by more than 20 points in four states.
Trump, meanwhile, only netted an unfavorable review in one state, Arizona, but the negative views only outweighed the positive opinions by 1 percentage point.
Trump also came out far ahead of Biden on the question about which candidate has better mental and physical fitness to handle the demands of the presidency, with 48% for Trump and 28% for Biden.
Voters were split on the issues, however, according to additional Wall Street Journal polling in the battleground states, this time surveying 2,100 voters and carrying a 2.1-point margin of error.
Trump came out with double-digit leads in all 7 states when it came to which candidate would best handle immigration, inflation, and the economy. Biden, though, was viewed as the choice on the topic of abortion. Here's how the stats break down:
- Economy: Biden, 34%; Trump, 54%.
- Immigration and border security: Biden, 32%; Trump, 52%.
- Abortion: Biden, 45%; Trump, 33%.
- Mental and physical fitness needed to be president, Biden, 28%; Trump, 48%.
Biden may see an opportunity in the news that many voters remain undecided or back third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., showing that they could swing back to support the incumbent president.
The poll also showed that swing state voters are more focused on the economy than voters are nationally.
According to the latest poll, 35% cited the economy and inflation as most important to their voting choice, compared to 19% in a Journal national poll in February.
Voters also described the national economy as being negative when compared to their state's economy. For example, North Carolina voters described the national economy as being negative rather than positive by 66% to 33%, but the numbers flipped when they were asked to rate their state's economy.