Former President Donald Trump holds a substantial lead in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, holding almost twice the support as his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in FiveThirtyEight's national polling average before next year's presidential primaries.
Trump received just less than half of the national vote on average, followed by DeSantis with about one-in-four voters:
- Trump: 49.3%
- DeSantis: 26.2%
- Former Vice President Mike Pence: 5.8%
- Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley: 4.3%
FiveThirtyEight notes that although the first primaries start in about nine months, "According to our research, national primary polls conducted the year before the election are reasonably predictive of the eventual nominee."
The organization found that candidates who poll above 30% support nationally have a higher chance of becoming the eventual nominee and that this chance rises with higher support. Conversely, candidates who garner less than 20% have been very unlikely to win the nomination, and those polling under 10% "are usually doomed."
FiveThirtyEight used 14 polls from various pollsters, including YouGov, Morning Consult, Ipsos, and Premise, to calculate the national average, which will be updated throughout the election season.