Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley maintains a runner-up spot in the state's latest GOP primary released Wednesday behind former President Donald Trump's majority, but the sudden exit of Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., will soon have an impact.
Trump pulls 52% support in Haley and Scott's home state, maintaining an overwhelming 35-point lead. While Haley has 17% support, the 10% going for Scott will ultimately have to move someplace, according to the analysis of the Winthrop Poll.
Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis was polling third at 12%.
"Haley continues her steady lead over DeSantis for the distant second choice among South Carolina Republicans; however, the Miami GOP debate occurred in the middle of our polling, so we may not have picked up whether she received any bump from her debate performance," Winthrop Poll Director Scott Huffman wrote in his press release.
Scott's support had popped up 4 points (6% to 10%) before his sudden suspension of his presidential campaign after the debate.
"With Tim Scott's surprising departure from the race, Haley will see how many 'favorite son' voters can be converted to 'favorite daughter' voters," Huffman added. "This should give Haley a little more room in seeking non-Trump endorsements from Republican politicians and leaders in the state.
"With Haley in a steady second, further growth in her South Carolina support may depend on getting those former Tim Scott voters on board early and showing strength and momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire. Even with those pieces of the puzzle falling into place, overcoming Trump's commanding lead is a very tall order."
The full 2024 Republican presidential primary poll results in South Carolina in the Winthrop Poll:
- Trump 52.2%
- Haley 16.9%
- DeSantis 11.7%
- Scott 9.7%
- Vivek Ramaswamy 2.8%
- Chris Christie 1.4%
- Asa Hutchinson 0.5%
- Gov. Doug Burgum 0.3%
There were 1.6% choosing "someone else," 2.4% with "no opinion," and 0.6% "refused to answer."
"Tim Scott's departure from the race seems to have surprised many in his own campaign as well as his good friend Trey Gowdy, on whose show he made the announcement," Huffman wrote. "Scott's announcement came just as we finished the last night of polling. Sen. Scott had clawed his way to low double-digit support in South Carolina, but this still had him in a distant fourth place, although he was gaining on DeSantis.
"While Scott was slowly gaining traction in South Carolina, he was unable to pick up much support in Iowa and New Hampshire. He also seemed to remain an unknown quantity to most national Republicans.
"Significant losses in the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, not to mention his home state, may have dampened Scott's future ambitions. Whether considering the veepstakes, a gubernatorial run, or remaining in the Senate, significant losses in these contests would have been a drag on those plans."
The Winthrop Poll results are consistent with the RealClearPolitics polling average in the state.
"Former Gov. Haley does a couple of percentage points better when Independents who lean Republicans are included in the mix," according to Huffman. "Unfortunately for her campaign, it is harder to get this group to the polls in a primary, so the question becomes how much money is it worth to spend to reach this group."
The Winthrop Poll surveyed 1,655 South Carolina registered voters Nov. 4-12 and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 percentage points.