New York City Mayor Eric Adams is facing a potentially fragile political future, considering federal corruption charges that have been filed against him and an expected tough battle next year for reelection.
"His political prospects could not be dimmer if you look at data, if you look at anecdotals, if you look at how one marshals together a reelection campaign, especially in a really tough environment," a New York Democratic strategist tells The Hill.
Adams, a former New York City police captain and Brooklyn Borough president, was elected in 2021, coming out of a crowded field of Democrats to become the city's second Black mayor.
But since then, his approval rating has plummeted, reaching a 28% low in December 2023, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, the lowest the university has recorded since it started polling registered New York City voters in 1996.
The low numbers come amid criticism over the influx of migrants into the city in the past few years, as well as housing shortages and mixed reports on crime levels, including random incidents such as last week's stabbing deaths of three people in Manhattan. Meanwhile, Adams is under federal indictment, after authorities charged him in September with corruption on allegations that he had accepted bribes from a Turkish government official and wealthy businessmen.
The allegations reach back to years before Adams was elected, and he could face sentencing to decades in prison if he is convicted.
He's denied all wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty to the charges, vowing that he will remain in office while he fights back.
However, the indictment comes just nine months before the Democratic Party's primaries this June and marks the first time a sitting New York City mayor has been indicted while in office.
A slate of prominent candidates had already entered the primary before the federal indictment, including Comptroller Brad Lander, former Comptroller Scott Stringer, and state Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos.
After the charges, state Assembly member Zohran Mamdani entered the primary race. Other prominent names have also shown interest in running, including former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Democratic National Committee Vice Chair Michael Blake.
Adams' fundraising has also dropped drastically, reports The Hill.
Following his indictment, Adams's political fundraising almost completely fell off. He only took in one donation, for $250, in the two and one-half weeks after he was charged. During the third quarter of 2024, he raised just over $200,000, for the worst period since taking office in 2021.
Meanwhile, Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf warned against ruling Adams out, stating that he has a "built-in following" with Black and conservative voters.
He added that only two incumbent mayors in the past 70 years were defeated in their reelection bids and had only served one term, and said that Adams' best chance for reelection would be to keep working hard at his job.
"Be the mayor," he said. "That's the job. Run the city, run the agencies, take care of crime, and get the city running. If we can do that, and get announced more affordable housing construction, the things voters care about, these positions are winning it."
He also noted that Adams' recent closeness with President-elect Donald Trump may help attract voters.
Adams spoke with Trump at a UFC fight earlier this month, and Adams said Trump complimented him on his job as mayor.
Trump has also empathized with Adams, commenting at the Al Smith charity dinner in New York City in October that he and the mayor are targets of politically motivated prosecutions.