Despite a huge edge in fundraising — reportedly close to a 3-to-1 advantage — incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., is stuck in a statistical tie with Republican challenger Herschel Walker just days before the final Georgia Senate runoff vote.
Warnock leads Walker by just 2 points (51%-49%), which is within the 3.2 percentage point margin of error in the latest Emerson College/The Hill poll.
That result allocates the lean of the 4% of undecided voters. Warnock leads by the same 2-point margin (49%-47%) when undecided, very likely runoff voters are left out.
The poll was taken amid early voting that is already underway and some of the respondents have already voted — a large majority that have voted for Warnock.
"The early vote breaks for Warnock by about 29 points, 63% to 34%, whereas those who have yet to cast their ballot break for Walker by 8 points, 52% to 44%," according to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.
The final vote is Tuesday, Dec. 6.
While Walker remains in striking distance, there is very little confidence the Republican can overcome the well-funded incumbent in the race.
"Despite the ballot test being well within the poll's margin of error, a Walker win would surprise the majority of voters," according to Kimball. "About 1 in 5 Republicans expect their nominee to lose. This reflects a significant shift since the last pre-general election poll earlier this month, where voters were nearly 50-50 if Warnock or Walker would win."
The Senate is already in Democrats' control with 50 Republicans compared to the 48 Democrats and the two independents that caucus with them. Vice President Kamala Harris breaks the tie in Democrats' favor.
The race for this seat remains important for future balance of power in the Senate. The winner will hold the seat for six years, through the next presidential election and all the way to the presidential election to follow in 2028.
Demographically, Warnock is more popular among younger voters in Georgia, while the older voters back Walker.
"Warnock's base lies with voters under 50 — a 55% majority support him for reelection — whereas Walker holds a similar 55% majority among voters over 50," according to Kimball.
Emerson College Polling surveyed 888 very likely runoff voters Nov. 28-30 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.