A recent poll revealed that Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of former President Donald Trump in Nebraska's Second Congressional District, highlighting the significance of its single electoral vote as the presidential race tightens, the New York Times reported.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds the lead over former President Donald Trump for the single electoral vote in eastern Nebraska's Second Congressional District, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.
If the presidential race remains closely contested, this single vote could be pivotal, potentially determining the election outcome.
The poll shows that Harris is favored by likely voters in Omaha and its surrounding suburbs, with 52 percent support compared to Trump's 43 percent. This margin underscores the importance of the district's unique electoral vote allocation system, which differs from the winner-take-all approach used in most states. Nebraska and Maine splits its electoral votes by congressional district, making this region a rare battleground.
Attention to this single electoral vote is not without precedent. In 2020, while Trump won the state of Nebraska overall, President Joe Biden secured the Second Congressional District's electoral vote. The potential impact of this vote is evident if Harris were to secure victories in traditional Democratic strongholds — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — but lose key battleground states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
In such a scenario, the Omaha district's vote could decide between a 270-268 Electoral College victory for Harris or a 269-269 tie.
A tie would shift the decision to the House of Representatives, where the outcome is determined not by individual members' votes but by the majority control of each state delegation. Given the current Republican majority in more state delegations, Trump would likely emerge victorious.
Efforts to change Nebraska's electoral vote allocation to a winner-take-all system were halted earlier this week when State Senator Mike McDonnell, a Democrat-turned-Republican, opposed the move, citing the proximity to Election Day. McDonnell's stance aligns with local sentiment; the poll indicates that 61 percent of likely voters in the district prefer the current system. Support for maintaining the district's unique vote is strong across educational and partisan lines, with even a significant portion of Republicans and Trump voters opposing the change.
The significance of this district extends beyond the presidential race. In the House contest, Democrat Tony Vargas holds a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Don Bacon, 49 percent to 46 percent. Bacon, who won the previous election by a slim margin, now faces a tighter race as the district shows signs of shifting towards Democrats.
The poll surveyed 688 likely voters in Michigan, 687 in Ohio, 680 in Wisconsin, and 680 in Nebraska's Second Congressional District from Sept. 21-26 in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and from Sept. 24-26 in Nebraska.
The combined margin of error for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio is plus or minus 2.5 points for likely voters and 2.4 points for registered voters.