Differences in 2024 government spending between House and Senate Republicans could signal an impending shutdown this fall.
The Hill reported Monday that the House Freedom Caucus said it wants to lower spending in 2024 to the 2022 level of $1.471 trillion instead of the $1.59 trillion cap agreed to by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the debt-limit deal this year.
According to the report, most Senate Republicans are standing by McCarthy's deal with Biden and are not looking for a confrontation with Democrats.
"Shutdowns do not accrue to the benefit of Republicans. There's been one instance when [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer tried to shut down the government that it blew back on him a little bit," David Cleary, a former senior Senate GOP aide, told The Hill. "Every other time that the government is shut down, it's Republicans' fault, especially when Republicans go out and crow about the government being shut down. I would anticipate that the Senate Republicans would pass a clean continuing resolution."
The lack of an appetite for such a shutdown among Republicans in the Senate is doing little to curb fears from the financial sector that considers that action "more likely than not."
Goldman Sachs analysts said last week that disputes on how much and what the government should spend taxpayer money on in 2024 combine the two separate factors that led to prior shutdowns, Reuters reported Aug. 21.
"At the moment, both types of risks are in play," Goldman said in the note, saying that a fall shutdown is likely.
Goldman Sachs warns that shutting the government down will result in a GDP growth decrease of around 0.15 percentage points for each week it lasts, the report said.
NPR reported Saturday that the House Freedom Caucus has been pushing McCarthy to make sure any future funding includes more money to secure the southern border and reforming the Department of Justice and Department of Defense.
"[I will] use every tool I have at my disposal to stop [McCarthy's temporary spending measure] and, frankly, to fight any efforts to continue to fund this government without radical reform for border security, at the Department of Justice and at the Department of Defense, at a minimum," NPR reported Freedom Caucus member Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, as saying during an August radio interview.