President Joe Biden has a narrower and tougher path to win the 270 electoral college votes needed to beat former President Donald Trump and reclaim the White House, a Democrat adviser said.
In commentary for The New York Times, Doug Sosnik wrote: "My analysis of voter history and polling shows a map that currently favors Mr. Trump, even though recent developments in Arizona improve Mr. Biden's chances."
Sosnik referred to Arizona's recent reinstatement of an 1864 abortion ban.
Sosnik noted that "seven states with close results determined who won both the 2020 and the 2016 presidential elections, and those same seven states will most likely play the same battleground role this fall: three industrial states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and four Sun Belt states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina."
According to Sosnik, if Biden and Trump remain ahead in the states where they are running the strongest, "the outcome of the election could come down to who wins Michigan and the two Sun Belt states where abortion will very likely be on the ballot, Arizona and Nevada."
Sosnik sounded an alarm for Democrats in Minnesota.
"While it is mathematically possible for Mr. Biden to win without carrying Minnesota, it is unlikely he will be elected if he cannot carry this traditionally Democratic state," Sosnik wrote.
Although Biden's 2020 victories in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia were due to his overwhelming support from young and nonwhite voters, polling now shows there's been an erosion during his presidency, Axios noted.