Following the imposition of a contempt of court fine on Tuesday against former President Donald Trump, legal experts have cautioned that a threatened jail term by the judge could lead to widespread upheaval.
Earlier in the day, New York State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan leveled a $9,000 fine against Trump for violating the terms of a previously imposed gag order.
In the written order, Merchan threatened, "Defendant is hereby warned that the Court will not tolerate willful violations of its lawful orders and that if necessary and appropriate under the circumstances, it will impose an incarceratory punishment."
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office filed a motion in mid-April to hold Trump in contempt for recent Truth Social posts. The motion stated that Trump's "recent social media posts plainly violate the order because they target known witnesses concerning their participation in this criminal proceeding."
The Trump team has accused Democrats in general and Merchan specifically of election interference due to the four criminal indictments that have kept him off the campaign trail.
Speaking to the Washington Examiner on Tuesday, legal analyst and corporate general counsel Alton Harmon said, "Judge Merchan is operating within his discretion, but I think he would be an automaton if he didn't appreciate that the world is watching him and how any imprisonment would be viewed by most as true election interference — not in the hyperbolic way that Trump routinely says this trial is amounting to by its very existence."
Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahani told the Washington Examiner that while jailing Trump seemed unlikely, it "may lead to mass protests or even civil unrest."
Harmon added, "I suspect it would cause widespread condemnation and countrywide protests from his base."
Attorney and former associate justice for the Massachusetts Superior Court Shannon Frison told the Washington Examiner that Merchan needs to consider the threat of societal unrest when making his judgements.
"I think you have to," she said. "Given the effect that he has on what we call his base, a segment of Republicans — I think that him [Trump] being incarcerated for any amount of time for any behavior would absolutely have some effect [on the public's reaction]."
The Trump documents case centers around allegations that Trump had his then-lawyer Michael Cohen make payments to adult entertainer Stormy Daniels, real name Stephanie Clifford, on the condition she refrain from discussing an affair, which Trump has denied. Trump has been accused of falsifying business records to conceal the payments.