Democrats overjoyed about the rising fortunes of Vice President Kamala Harris, the party's presidential nominee, might find that it doesn't help them reclaim a House majority.
Of the 22 House races listed as "toss-ups" by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, only seven are in presidential battleground states. Many of the races are in states like California and New York, where neither presidential campaign will spend money.
Democrats need to flip four seats to recapture the House majority they lost in 2022.
"Our majority lives and dies in blue states," Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP-leadership affiliated super PAC, told Punchbowl News. "The environment is just a couple ticks better for Republicans in those swing districts than it is elsewhere. That has been a consistent phenomena for six years, and it very much exists the same way today."
Other close races are in blue states like Maine, Colorado, and Washington and red states like Ohio and Alaska.
"The presidential race is not going to be fought in those states," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene told Punchbowl. "This is also a place where House infrastructure is important, and House investments are important because these are states where the competitive races are House races."
On the outset, it looks like Democrats are destroying Republicans in fundraising, with the DCCC having $17 million more money to spend than the National Republican Congressional Committee, Punchbowl reported.
But the gap is narrowed when super PACs are factored in. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican affiliated PAC has $110 million on hand, while the House Majority PAC, affiliated with Democrats, has $88 million, Punchbowl reported.
Republicans also hold an edge over Democrats when it comes to the economy, immigration and inflation, Punchbowl reported, citing recent polling.