The rust belt has become the biggest battleground in presidential elections and currently there are some favorable numbers for former President Donald Trump in the region, portending a potentially razor-tight race in 2024.
President Joe Biden leads Trump by just 1 percentage point (46% to 45%), squarely within the margin of error, in the latest EPIC-MRA poll released Friday.
Nine percent of respondents were undecided or refused to answer the hypothetical question of whether they would vote for Trump, lean toward Trump, vote for Biden, or lean toward Biden.
The poll results:
- 40% Trump
- 5% lean toward Trump
- 45% total vote Trump
- 46% total vote Biden
- 43% Biden
- 3% lean toward Biden
- 9% undecided/refused to answer
The results align with those from last month's Michigan poll, which is used in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Biden holds a scant 1-point lead in the RCP average after holding a 2-point edge in July's MIRS/Mitchell Research poll, which was also inside the margin of error.
The rust belt encompasses a group of battleground states running from Pennsylvania into the midwest through Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Ohio has traditionally been the presidential election bellwether state, though Trump's 2020 Ohio victory snapped that string, putting added emphasis on Wisconsin and Michigan.
The surest sign of the importance of that is that the Republican National Committee is kicking off the 2024 GOP presidential primary debate cycle in Milwaukee, Wisconsin next week. It chose that same city to host the 2024 RNC Convention to officially deliver the presidential nomination.
The EPIC-MRA statewide poll of active and likely 2024 general election voters polled 600 Michiganders in Aug. 6-11, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.