The immigration surge during President Joe Biden's term has been the largest in the history of the United States, according to a new analysis from The New York Times.
The newspaper found that the surge exceeded the levels of the late 1800s and early 1900s and reported that total net migration, or the number of people entering the country minus the number leaving it, will likely surpass eight million people over the last four years. That figure includes legal, as well as illegal, immigration.
According to data from the Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office, this is the first time in the nation's history when net migration has approached two million people per year for an extended period of time.
The Times found that the present surge is slightly larger than the one that came through Ellis Island, when millions of Europeans relocated to the U.S., even after adjusting for today's larger population.
As a result, the percentage of the U.S. population that was born in a foreign country has hit a new high, soaring to 15.2% in the summer of 2023 and continuing to climb over the past 18 months, according to the analysis. The previous record high of 14.8% occurred in 1890.
The outlet attributed the recent surge to Biden's immigration policy, which encouraged more people to come to the United States and dismantled many of his predecessor's more stringent border policies.
Although Biden administration officials often claim that migration was mainly driven by unrest in Haiti, Ukraine, and Venezuela, the sharp decline in encounters with U.S. Border Patrol along the southern border after Biden put tougher border security measures in place this summer indicates that his welcoming immigration policy was the primary motivation all along.
Citing an estimate by Goldman Sachs, the Times' analysis found that approximately five million of the roughly eight million net migrants who entered the U.S. in the past four years — or 62% — did so illegally.
The unprecedented immigration surge helps explain the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, as polls showed that most Americans, especially working-class voters, were not in favor of such a steep influx of immigrants, many of whom had bypassed legal channels when coming to the United States.
After the economy, the issue of immigration seems to have been Vice President Kamala Harris' biggest vulnerability, according to the Times. President-elect Donald Trump made substantial gains in Texas, flipping six counties along the Rio Grande that he had lost by large margins eight years ago.
Given Trump's promise to enact tough border rules when he takes office next year and his campaign pledge to deport millions of illegal immigrants, the recent immigration surge has probably come to an end, the Times predicted.